Zhonghua Gas Holdings Ltd (8246) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$415M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −13.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3825). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5440 – HK$2.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.2635 – HK$0.3825 · the HK$0.5900 price screens above the HK$0.3230 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Zhonghua Gas Holdings Ltd (8246) currently trades at HK$0.5900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3230, implying the stock looks roughly 45.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Zhonghua Gas Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$78.5M at a net margin of -30.0%. Revenue declined 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$87.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2635 (bear case) to HK$0.3825 (bull case); at HK$0.5900, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -45%, 8246 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$1.52) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Zhonghua Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides integrated energy services in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Energy Business and Property Investments.
Full company description
Zhonghua Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides integrated energy services in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Energy Business and Property Investments. The Energy Business segment offers integrated energy services, including technological development, construction, and consultancy services for heat supply and coal-to-natural gas conversion. This segment also supplies and sells liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Property Investments segment leases investment properties. It provides money lending and corporate services. The company was formerly known as Northern New Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to Zhonghua Gas Holdings Limited in September 2018. Zhonghua Gas Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Zhonghua Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$75.7M in FY2025 versus HK$421M in FY2021, a compound −34.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$22.7M in FY2025.
8246 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.94 | €31.58 | +9% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $169.59 | $85.67 | -49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $42.01 | $28.59 | -32% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$6.76 | HK$4.79 | -29% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹177.95 | ₹130.21 | -27% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | -85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.32 | ¥25.71 | +48% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$47.16 | HK$107.98 | +129% |
| China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 | ¥7.26 | ¥7.37 | +2% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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