Gulf Insurance Group (8250) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Gulf Insurance Group SAR 21.71, price SAR 30.00, upside -27.6%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Gulf Insurance Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.38 SAR – 35.74 SAR · fair‑value band 19.76 SAR – 26.46 SAR · the 30.00 SAR price screens above the 21.71 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Follow Gulf Insurance in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Gulf Insurance is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Gulf Insurance Group provides insurance and reinsurance products and services for corporates, SMEs, and individual customers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Motor, Property and Casualty, Health, and Protection segments. The company offers car, travel, home, and motorcycle insurance products for individuals.
Show more
Gulf Insurance Group provides insurance and reinsurance products and services for corporates, SMEs, and individual customers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Motor, Property and Casualty, Health, and Protection segments. The company offers car, travel, home, and motorcycle insurance products for individuals. It also provides group healthcare, life, business travel, group personal accident, business secure, motor fleet, marine, liability, property, and engineering insurance products for businesses. The company was formerly known as AXA Cooperative Insurance Company and changed its name to Gulf Insurance Group in June 2022. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Gulf Insurance Group is a subsidiary of Gulf Insurance Group (Gulf) B.S.C.
Stock analysis
Gulf Insurance Group (8250) currently trades at 30.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 21.71 SAR, 27.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 31.25 SAR per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 30.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 13.49 SAR, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 19.76 SAR (bear) to 26.46 SAR (bull), the price of 30.00 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Gulf Insurance Group reported revenue of 1.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 126M SAR in FY2025, compounding −4.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.6B SAR (≈ $419M) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) 2.80 SAR · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −28%, 8250 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 19.76 SARFair Value 21.71 SARBull 26.46 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.20 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.0% vs 15.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−27.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF26.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)80· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gulf Insurance Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8250
Frequently asked questions
Is Gulf Insurance Group (8250) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 21.71 SAR versus a price of 30.00 SAR, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8250?
Our model-based fair value for Gulf Insurance Group is 21.71 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 30.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 8250?
Gulf Insurance Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 21.71 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 19.76 SAR, optimistic scenario 26.46 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gulf Insurance Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 21.71 SAR, about −28% upside versus a price of 30.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 19.76 SAR, optimistic scenario 26.46 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Gulf Insurance Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Gulf Insurance Group pay a dividend?
Gulf Insurance Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gulf Insurance Group would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8250 use?
Our models discount Gulf Insurance Group at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gulf Insurance Group that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gulf Insurance Group (8250) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gulf Insurance Group grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gulf Insurance Group (8250) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gulf Insurance Group (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.83 %: that much free cash flow Gulf Insurance Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gulf Insurance Group it is 21.71 SAR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 30.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gulf Insurance Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 8250 trades above its calculated fair value: price 30.00 SAR, fair value 21.71 SAR, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8250?
No. The price is what the market pays today (30.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (21.71 SAR). For Gulf Insurance Group the two are 8.29 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gulf Insurance Group worth?
The market values Gulf Insurance Group at about 1.6B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 30.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 21.71 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8250?
Our models span a range for Gulf Insurance Group: cautious scenario 19.76 SAR, base 21.71 SAR, optimistic 26.46 SAR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 30.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8250?
Gulf Insurance Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 21.71 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gulf Insurance Group (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 12.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8250 from its 52-week high?
Gulf Insurance Group trades at 30.00 SAR, about 13% below its 52-week high of 34.40 SAR and 50% above the low of 20.07 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 21.71 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gulf Insurance Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, AXA SA, Zurich Insurance Group, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gulf Insurance Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 30.00 SAR, calculated fair value 21.71 SAR (−28%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8250 calculated?
We run Gulf Insurance Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 21.71 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gulf Insurance Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 30.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 21.71 SAR, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gulf Insurance Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (26.46 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Gulf Insurance Group (8250) come from?
Earnings per share at Gulf Insurance Group grew +14.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin +13.8 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gulf Insurance Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The market capitalisation of Gulf Insurance Group is 1.6B SAR (≈ $419M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gulf Insurance Group is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Insurance Group are 2.80 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The dividend yield of Gulf Insurance Group is 4.0% (payout 42.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The net margin of Gulf Insurance Group is 9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gulf Insurance Group is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gulf Insurance Group is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
The operating margin of Gulf Insurance Group is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Revenue at Gulf Insurance Group is growing +33.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gulf Insurance Group (8250)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Insurance Group are growing +13.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gulf Insurance Group (8250) hold?
Gulf Insurance Group holds more cash than debt, 66.5M SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Gulf Insurance Group in the live analysis
One click puts Gulf Insurance Group on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
