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China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Golden Classic Group Ltd HK$0.25, price HK$0.28, upside -10.7%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Defensive · HK · ISIN KYG2119E1061

CG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Golden Classic Group Ltd

8281 · HK

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value HK$0.2500 · Overvalued (−10.7%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 19 out of 100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.28 HK$0.0550 Fair Value HK$0.2500 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0550 – HK$1.28 · fair‑value band HK$0.1900 – HK$0.3100 · the HK$0.2800 price screens above the HK$0.2500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

China Golden Classic Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in oral care, household hygiene, and leather care products in People's Republic of China, the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Oral Care Products; Leather Care Products; and Household Hygiene Products segments.

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China Golden Classic Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in oral care, household hygiene, and leather care products in People's Republic of China, the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Oral Care Products; Leather Care Products; and Household Hygiene Products segments. The oral care products segment manufacture and sales oral care products, including functional toothpaste, mouthwash, oral spray, and toothbrush. The leather care products segment manufacture and sales leather care products, including leather shoe care and clothing care products. The Household hygiene products segment manufacture and sales household hygiene products, including surface cleaners, laundry care products, toilet care products, and mould proof products. China Golden Classic Group Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Jiangyin, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) currently trades at HK$0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2500, 10.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3200 per share, and 12 of the 21 models we run sit above the HK$0.2800 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.0400, and 9 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1900 (bear) to HK$0.3100 (bull), the price of HK$0.2800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Golden Classic Group Ltd reported revenue of 269M CNY in FY2025 versus 296M CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 10.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$280M (≈ $35.7M) · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 0.87 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.8% · Operating margin 6.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −11%, 8281 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1900 Fair Value HK$0.2500 Bull HK$0.3100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.2600 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4200 80
Growth DCF HK$0.2700 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4100 77
Residual Income HK$0.2400 HK$0.2400 HK$0.2400 76
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.2600 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4200 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.3300 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5500 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4100 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3900 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.2700 HK$0.3400 HK$0.4300 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3500 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3400 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3600 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1100 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0400 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0400 HK$0.0500 HK$0.0600 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 55
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2600 HK$0.3100 HK$0.3700 64
EV/Revenue HK$0.2600 HK$0.3200 HK$0.3900 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1600 HK$0.2100 HK$0.3200 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.2700 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4100 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2500 HK$0.3200 HK$0.4000 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.2400 HK$0.2400 HK$0.2400 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1300 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.5% vs −7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → −2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.7% a year for the price.

8281 screens overvalued: fair value 11% below the price. Compare with Colgate-Palmolive Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 241 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −10.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3.8% · Below median
Return on assets 1.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)19 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)15 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)34 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Colgate-Palmolive Company CL $86.52 $56.16 −35%
Hindustan Unilever Limited HINDUNILVR ₹1,943 ₹775.25 −60%
Kenvue Inc KVUE $17.80 $12.72 −29%
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc EL $94.47 $44.21 −53%
Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB $98.77 $83.77 −15%
Henkel AG HEN €68.10 €82.61 +21%
Church & Dwight Co CHD $95.62 $65.04 −32%
Beiersdorf Aktiengesellschaft, BEI €78.56 €69.09 −12%
Puig Brands, S.A PUIG €17.84 €24.28 +36%
Marico Limited MARICO ₹819.00 ₹493.84 −40%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Golden Classic Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8281

Frequently asked questions

Is China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2500 versus a price of HK$0.2800, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8281?
Our model-based fair value for China Golden Classic Group Ltd is HK$0.2500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2800.
What is the quality score of 8281?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1900, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Golden Classic Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2500, about −11% upside versus a price of HK$0.2800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1900, optimistic scenario HK$0.3100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 269M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Golden Classic Group Ltd pay a dividend?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Golden Classic Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8281 use?
Our models discount China Golden Classic Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Golden Classic Group Ltd that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Golden Classic Group Ltd grew -2.6 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Golden Classic Group Ltd (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.89 %: that much free cash flow China Golden Classic Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Golden Classic Group Ltd it is HK$0.2500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2800. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Golden Classic Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8281 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2800, fair value HK$0.2500, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8281?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2500). For China Golden Classic Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Golden Classic Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Golden Classic Group Ltd at about HK$280M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2800; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8281?
Our models span a range for China Golden Classic Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1900, base HK$0.2500, optimistic HK$0.3100 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8281?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Golden Classic Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8281 from its 52-week high?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2800, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3300 and 195% above the low of HK$0.0950 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Golden Classic Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Golden Classic Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2800, calculated fair value HK$0.2500 (−11%), Quality Score 69/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8281 calculated?
We run China Golden Classic Group Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Golden Classic Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2800. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2500, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Golden Classic Group Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of China Golden Classic Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The market capitalisation of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is HK$280M (≈ $35.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The dividend yield of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The net margin of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is −0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
The operating margin of China Golden Classic Group Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
Revenue at China Golden Classic Group Ltd is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281)?
Earnings per share at China Golden Classic Group Ltd are growing +45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) hold?
China Golden Classic Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 90.5M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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