China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$229M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +18.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.1900 (bear) to HK$0.3100 (bull), base HK$0.2500. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0550 – HK$1.28 · fair‑value band HK$0.1900 – HK$0.3100 · the HK$0.2950 price screens above the HK$0.2500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Golden Classic Group Ltd (8281) currently trades at HK$0.2950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2500, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Golden Classic Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$269M at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$90.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1900 (bear case) to HK$0.3100 (bull case); at HK$0.2950, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -15%, 8281 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.2400) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Golden Classic Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in oral care, household hygiene, and leather care products in People's Republic of China, the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Oral Care Products; Leather Care Products; and Household Hygiene Products segments.
Full company description
China Golden Classic Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in oral care, household hygiene, and leather care products in People's Republic of China, the United States, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Oral Care Products; Leather Care Products; and Household Hygiene Products segments. The oral care products segment manufacture and sales oral care products, including functional toothpaste, mouthwash, oral spray, and toothbrush. The leather care products segment manufacture and sales leather care products, including leather shoe care and clothing care products. The Household hygiene products segment manufacture and sales household hygiene products, including surface cleaners, laundry care products, toilet care products, and mould proof products. China Golden Classic Group Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Jiangyin, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Golden Classic Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$269M in FY2025 versus HK$296M in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.2M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
8281 screens 15% overvalued. Compare with The Procter & Gamble Company →
Peer Group
Household & Personal Products · 252 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Procter & Gamble Company PG | $144.26 | $108.16 | -25% |
| Unilever PLC ULN | 1,080 MXN | 973.58 MXN | -10% |
| Hindustan Unilever Limited HINDUNILVR | ₹2,063 | ₹789.46 | -62% |
| Essity AB ESSITYA | kr 276.50 | kr 250.02 | -10% |
| Godrej Consumer Products Limited GODREJCP | ₹936.90 | ₹367.64 | -61% |
| Marico Limited MARICO | ₹855.00 | ₹233.05 | -73% |
| APR Co 278470 | 397,000 KRW | 137,521 KRW | -65% |
| Dabur India Limited DABUR | ₹411.25 | ₹175.59 | -57% |
| PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR | 1,760 IDR | 1,928 IDR | +10% |
| Amorepacific Corporation 090430 | 135,700 KRW | 84,785 KRW | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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