Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd TWD 22.02, price TWD 9.85, upside +123.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.64 TWD – 19.68 TWD · fair‑value band 17.89 TWD – 25.42 TWD · the 9.85 TWD price screens below the 22.02 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells tin cans and aluminum cans in Mainland China.
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Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells tin cans and aluminum cans in Mainland China. It is also involved in production, processing, and sale of various beverages and food; manufacturing of packaging and aluminum cans, lids, and boxes; and processing and production of plastic color-printing, as well as provides tinplate, paperware, and bottle ware. Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Tainan City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) currently trades at 9.85 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.02 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 55.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 22.11 TWD per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the 9.85 TWD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 16.17 TWD, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 17.89 TWD (bear) to 25.42 TWD (bull), the price of 9.85 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 3.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 4.1B TWD in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −151M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 724M TWD (≈ $22.8M) · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) −2.05 TWD · Net margin −4.9% · Return on equity −5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin −1.9% · Revenue (TTM) 3.4B TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 124%, 8488 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 17.89 TWDFair Value 22.02 TWDBull 25.42 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.0% (2020) → −4.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.6% a year for the price.
Compare Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+124% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth56% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.02 TWD versus a price of 9.85 TWD, about +124% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8488?
Our model-based fair value for Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is 22.02 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.85 TWD.
What is the quality score of 8488?
Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.02 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17.89 TWD, optimistic scenario 25.42 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.02 TWD, about +124% upside versus a price of 9.85 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 17.89 TWD, optimistic scenario 25.42 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8488 use?
Our models discount Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.35 %: that much free cash flow Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd it is 22.02 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9.85 TWD. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8488 trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.85 TWD, fair value 22.02 TWD, a gap of about +124% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8488?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.85 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.02 TWD). For Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd the two are 12.17 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd at about 724M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9.85 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 22.02 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8488?
Our models span a range for Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario 17.89 TWD, base 22.02 TWD, optimistic 25.42 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9.85 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8488 from its 52-week high?
Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd trades at 9.85 TWD, about 15% below its 52-week high of 11.55 TWD and 2% above the low of 9.64 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.02 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9.85 TWD, calculated fair value 22.02 TWD (+124%), Quality Score 42/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8488 calculated?
We run Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.02 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd currently trades 124 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 9.85 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 22.02 TWD, about +124% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (17.89 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The market capitalisation of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is 724M TWD (≈ $22.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Earnings per share at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd are −2.05 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The net margin of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is −4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is −5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
The operating margin of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Revenue at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is growing +55.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488)?
Earnings per share at Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd are growing −40.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd (8488) carry?
The net debt of Jiyuan Packaging Holdings Ltd is 1.6B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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