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Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd (8620) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$82.9M

AE Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd 8620 · HK
PriceHK$0.1470
Fair ValueHK$0.2000
Upside+36.1%
Quality49/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -0.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 10/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.1200 – HK$0.2700 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −1.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1200 to HK$0.2700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.3350 HK$0.0650 Fair Value HK$0.2000 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0650 – HK$0.3350 · fair‑value band HK$0.1200 – HK$0.2700 · the HK$0.1470 price screens below the HK$0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd (8620) currently trades at HK$0.1470, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2000, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$330M at a net margin of -0.3%. Revenue declined 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.4%. Net debt stands at HK$57.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1200 (bear case) to HK$0.2700 (bull case); at HK$0.1470, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 36%, 8620 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.1500 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 72
Gordon GGM HK$0.1200 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 70
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1600 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2800 67
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.1500 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2800 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1600 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2900 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2000 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3800 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.1700 HK$0.2200 HK$0.2700 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1200 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1200 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$0.2700 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4200 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.1500 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2200 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.1600 HK$0.2100 HK$0.2800 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$0.2400) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$330M
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.9%
Net margin -0.3%
Return on equity -3.4%
Free cash flow HK$8.0M FY2025
Operating margin -0.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0100
EPS growth (YoY) -44.7%
Net debt HK$57.1M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Asia-express Logistics Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides air cargo ground handling services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company offers air cargo terminal operation, transportation, and warehousing and other value-added services.

Full company description

Asia-express Logistics Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides air cargo ground handling services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. The company offers air cargo terminal operation, transportation, and warehousing and other value-added services. It serves express carriers, air cargo terminal operators, freight forwarders, and corporate and individual customers. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. Asia-express Logistics Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of 3C Holding Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$328M in FY2026 versus HK$413M in FY2022, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$1.1M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$328M
Latest YoY
−5.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Revenue −5.6%/yr
FY22 HK$413M
FY23 HK$328M
FY24 HK$356M
FY25 HK$348M
FY26 HK$328M
Net income
FY22 −HK$18.3M
FY23 −HK$20.2M
FY24 −HK$4.5M
FY25 −HK$3.5M
FY26 −HK$1.1M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8620

Peer Group

Airports & Air Services · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +36% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 81 · sector 38
FUTURE 0 · sector 31
PAST 0 · sector 45
HEALTH 0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 64

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Airports & Air Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Aena S.M.E., S.A AENA €26.84 €26.90 +0%
Airports of Thailand Public Company TATD 2.43 SGD 1.25 SGD -49%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A. PAC $214.96 $250.60 +17%
GMR Airports Limited GMRINFRA ₹102.70 ₹22.29 -78%
Flughafen Zürich AG FHZN CHF 231.40 CHF 121.30 -48%
Shanghai International Airport Co 600009 ¥23.41 ¥17.09 -27%
Auckland International Airport Limited AIA A$7.20 A$2.77 -62%
Fraport AG FRA €66.85 €49.83 -25%
Københavns Lufthavne A/S KBHL kr 5,500 kr 1,821 -67%
SATS Ltd S58 4.71 SGD 4.03 SGD -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd (8620) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2000 versus a price of HK$0.1470, about +36% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8620?
Our model-based fair value for Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2000 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.1470.
What is the quality score of 8620?
Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd (8620)?
Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$330M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8620?
The net profit margin of Asia Express Logistics Holdings Ltd is about -0.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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