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Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc HK$67.85, price HK$202, upside -66.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 1, 2026
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc
9606 · HKWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value HK$67.85 · Strongly overvalued (−66.4%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +940.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -170.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range HK$94.60 – HK$510.00 · fair‑value band HK$45.26 – HK$99.76 · the HK$201.80 price screens above the HK$67.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Company profile
Duality Biotherapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapeutics to treat cancer, autoimmune diseases, and others in China and internationally.
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Duality Biotherapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapeutics to treat cancer, autoimmune diseases, and others in China and internationally. The company provides DB-1303/BNT323, a HER2 ADC candidate targeting cancers, including endometrial cancer1 and breast cancer2; DB-1311/BNT324, a B7-H3 ADC candidate targeting cancers, such as small-cell lung cancer3, castration-resistant prostate cancer4, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma5, and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma; and other clinical-stage ADCs. It has strategic partnerships with BioNTech SE to develop therapies to complement or replace chemotherapy; and BeOne to develop and commercialize DB-1312, an in-house discovered B7-H4- targeted ADC. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) currently trades at HK$201.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$67.85, 66.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$73.94 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the HK$201.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$20.81, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$45.26 (bear) to HK$99.76 (bull), the price of HK$201.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6M CNY in FY2022, a compound +940.8%/yr. Reported net income was −2.5B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$18.2B (≈ $2.3B) · P/S ratio 21.9 · Net margin −140% · Return on equity −65.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.8% · Operating margin −418% · Revenue (TTM) 842M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −82.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −66%, 9606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$45.26
Fair Value HK$67.85
Bull HK$99.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
HK$53.97
HK$73.94
HK$136.19
71
Growth DCF
HK$51.72
HK$83.11
HK$133.68
69
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$44.21
HK$63.11
HK$102.57
64
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
HK$53.97
HK$73.94
HK$136.19
71
5Y Revenue Exit
HK$44.21
HK$63.11
HK$102.57
64
10Y Revenue Exit
HK$46.65
HK$79.60
HK$99.80
60
Multiples
EV/Revenue
HK$38.04
HK$47.06
HK$56.09
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$15.53
HK$20.81
HK$31.06
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
HK$51.72
HK$83.11
HK$133.68
69
Rev-Margin DCF
HK$46.99
HK$69.76
HK$117.47
64
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
36/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Profitability
11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
28
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+940.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.5% a year for the price and −10.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−11.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−11.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)−9.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)−7.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)−6.1%
Compare Duality Biotherapeutics Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 633 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Healthcare
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $527.67 | $580.44 | +10% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $752.25 | $1,275 | +69% |
| argenx SE ARGX | $959.49 | $918.60 | −4% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$176.95 | A$194.65 | +10% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,366,000 KRW | 1,502,600 KRW | +10% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $360.85 | $280.94 | −22% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $255.96 | $217.88 | −15% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $58.21 | $19.01 | −67% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 177,400 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −58% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$53.00 | HK$58.30 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$67.85 versus a price of HK$201.80, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9606?
Our model-based fair value for Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is HK$67.85 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$201.80.
What is the quality score of 9606?
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$67.85 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$45.26, optimistic scenario HK$99.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duality Biotherapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$67.85, about −66% upside versus a price of HK$201.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$45.26, optimistic scenario HK$99.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 842M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duality Biotherapeutics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +34.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +940.8 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9606 use?
Our models discount Duality Biotherapeutics Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duality Biotherapeutics Inc that is +34.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Duality Biotherapeutics Inc grew +940.8 % a year. The price currently implies +34.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (+34.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow Duality Biotherapeutics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duality Biotherapeutics Inc it is HK$67.85 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$201.80. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duality Biotherapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 9606 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$201.80, fair value HK$67.85, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9606?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$201.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$67.85). For Duality Biotherapeutics Inc the two are HK$133.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duality Biotherapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Duality Biotherapeutics Inc at about HK$18.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$201.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$67.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9606?
Our models span a range for Duality Biotherapeutics Inc: cautious scenario HK$45.26, base HK$67.85, optimistic HK$99.76 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$201.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −65.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9606 from its 52-week high?
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc trades at HK$201.80, about 44% below its 52-week high of HK$363.60 and 24% above the low of HK$162.80 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$67.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duality Biotherapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duality Biotherapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$201.80, calculated fair value HK$67.85 (−66%), Quality Score 36/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9606 calculated?
We run Duality Biotherapeutics Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$67.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Duality Biotherapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$201.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$67.85, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duality Biotherapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$99.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$45.26 to HK$99.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The market capitalisation of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is HK$18.2B (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is 21.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The net margin of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is −140% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is −65.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is −11.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
The operating margin of Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is −418% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606)?
Revenue at Duality Biotherapeutics Inc is growing −82.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +941%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) hold?
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, 1.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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