Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$18.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$43.20 to HK$43.23 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −13.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$52.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (16 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range HK$94.60 – HK$510.00 · fair‑value band HK$34.16 – HK$52.30 · the HK$186.00 price screens above the HK$43.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606) currently trades at HK$186.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$43.23, implying the stock looks roughly 76.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$1.9B. Revenue declined 33.8% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$34.16 (bear case) to HK$52.30 (bull case); at HK$186.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -77%, 9606 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$67.60) versus Asset-Based (HK$17.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 5
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Duality Biotherapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapeutics to treat cancer, autoimmune diseases, and others in China and internationally.
Full company description
Duality Biotherapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapeutics to treat cancer, autoimmune diseases, and others in China and internationally. The company provides DB-1303/BNT323, a HER2 ADC candidate targeting cancers, including endometrial cancer1 and breast cancer2; DB-1311/BNT324, a B7-H3 ADC candidate targeting cancers, such as small-cell lung cancer3, castration-resistant prostate cancer4, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma5, and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma; and other clinical-stage ADCs. It has strategic partnerships with BioNTech SE to develop therapies to complement or replace chemotherapy; and BeOne to develop and commercialize DB-1312, an in-house discovered B7-H4- targeted ADC. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Duality Biotherapeutics Inc reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$1.6M in FY2022, a compound +940.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.5B in FY2025.
9606 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 314,000 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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