Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Ocean One Holding Ltd. HK$2.11, price HK$2.82, upside -25.2%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5125 – HK$5.05 · fair‑value band HK$1.37 – HK$3.02 · the HK$2.82 price screens above the HK$2.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Ocean One Holding Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the import and wholesale of frozen seafood products in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan. It offers prawns; scallops, oysters, and surf clams; fishes; crabs and roe; octopuses and cuttlefishes; processed seafood products; and miscellaneous products.
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Ocean One Holding Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the import and wholesale of frozen seafood products in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan. It offers prawns; scallops, oysters, and surf clams; fishes; crabs and roe; octopuses and cuttlefishes; processed seafood products; and miscellaneous products. The company is also involved in the provision of product sourcing, quality assurance, storage, and transportation services; and property holding business. It serves frozen seafood resellers, local integrated food product wholesaling companies, and food trade companies, as well as frozen seafood catering service providers, including restaurants, food chain stores, food processing operators, and other end customers. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong. Ocean One Holding Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Karlson Holding Limited.
Stock analysis
Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) currently trades at HK$2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.11, 25.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$2.60 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$2.82 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.4400, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.37 (bear) to HK$3.02 (bull), the price of HK$2.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ocean One Holding Ltd. reported revenue of HK$426M in FY2026 versus HK$409M in FY2022, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$39.2M in FY2026, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$790M (≈ $101M) · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 2.00 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.4% · Operating margin 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −25%, 9876 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.37Fair Value HK$2.11Bull HK$3.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.5% vs 11.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−25.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.8% · Above median
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.85× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF29.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ocean One Holding Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9876
Frequently asked questions
Is Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.11 versus a price of HK$2.82, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9876?
Our model-based fair value for Ocean One Holding Ltd. is HK$2.11 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.82.
What is the quality score of 9876?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.11 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.37, optimistic scenario HK$3.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ocean One Holding Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.11, about −25% upside versus a price of HK$2.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.37, optimistic scenario HK$3.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$426M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Ocean One Holding Ltd. pay a dividend?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ocean One Holding Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9876 use?
Our models discount Ocean One Holding Ltd. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ocean One Holding Ltd. that is +17.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ocean One Holding Ltd. grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +17.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ocean One Holding Ltd. (+17.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.44 %: that much free cash flow Ocean One Holding Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ocean One Holding Ltd. it is HK$2.11 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.82. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ocean One Holding Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9876 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.82, fair value HK$2.11, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9876?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.11). For Ocean One Holding Ltd. the two are HK$0.7100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ocean One Holding Ltd. worth?
The market values Ocean One Holding Ltd. at about HK$790M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.82; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9876?
Our models span a range for Ocean One Holding Ltd.: cautious scenario HK$1.37, base HK$2.11, optimistic HK$3.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9876?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ocean One Holding Ltd. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9876 from its 52-week high?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. trades at HK$2.82, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$4.74 and 42% above the low of HK$1.99 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ocean One Holding Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ocean One Holding Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.82, calculated fair value HK$2.11 (−25%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9876 calculated?
We run Ocean One Holding Ltd. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ocean One Holding Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.82. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.11, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ocean One Holding Ltd. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$1.37 to HK$3.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) come from?
Earnings per share at Ocean One Holding Ltd. grew +14.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ocean One Holding Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The market capitalisation of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is HK$790M (≈ $101M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 2.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The dividend yield of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The net margin of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 9.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 18.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
The operating margin of Ocean One Holding Ltd. is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Revenue at Ocean One Holding Ltd. is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876)?
Earnings per share at Ocean One Holding Ltd. are growing −9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ocean One Holding Ltd. (9876) hold?
Ocean One Holding Ltd. holds more cash than debt, HK$46.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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