Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd HK$6.26, price HK$3.13, upside +100.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.75 – HK$6.25 · fair‑value band HK$5.55 – HK$7.90 · the HK$3.13 price screens below the HK$6.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides various banking products and services in China.
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Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. provides various banking products and services in China. The company's Corporate Banking segment offers various corporate banking products and services, including corporate loans and advances, deposits, trade finance, and other corporate intermediary businesses to corporate customers, governments, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal banking products and services comprising personal loans and advances, deposits, bank cards, and other individual intermediary businesses to individual customers. The company's Treasury segment offers money market transactions, repurchase transactions, debt instrument investments, wealth management products, and precious metals. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Dongguan, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889) currently trades at HK$3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.26, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$8.29 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$3.13 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$4.43, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.55 (bear) to HK$7.90 (bull), the price of HK$3.13 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd reported revenue of 22.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$21.6B (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 4.6 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 16.8% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 100%, 9889 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.55Fair Value HK$6.26Bull HK$7.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+153.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.4% vs −1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.59% → 16%
Compare Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1056 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)48.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)45.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9889
Frequently asked questions
Is Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$6.26 versus a price of HK$3.13, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9889?
Our model-based fair value for Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is HK$6.26 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.13.
What is the quality score of 9889?
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$6.26 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.55, optimistic scenario HK$7.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$6.26, about +100% upside versus a price of HK$3.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.55, optimistic scenario HK$7.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd it is HK$6.26 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of HK$3.13. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9889 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.13, fair value HK$6.26, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9889?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$6.26). For Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd the two are HK$3.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd worth?
The market values Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd at about HK$21.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.13; our models calculate a fair value of HK$6.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9889?
Our models span a range for Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.55, base HK$6.26, optimistic HK$7.90 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price HK$3.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9889?
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.6 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$6.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9889 from its 52-week high?
Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd trades at HK$3.13, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$3.70 and 1% above the low of HK$3.10 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$6.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price HK$3.13, calculated fair value HK$6.26 (+100%), Quality Score 43/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9889 calculated?
We run Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$6.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.13. Our model-based fair value is HK$6.26, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The market capitalisation of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is HK$21.6B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Earnings per share at Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd are HK$0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The dividend yield of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 7.0% (payout 147%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The net margin of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
The operating margin of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Revenue at Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is growing −7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889)?
Earnings per share at Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd are growing +17.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889) generate?
The free cash flow of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is −22.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd (9889) carry?
The net debt of Dongguan Rural Coml Bk Co Ltd is 134B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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