Weibo Corp (9898) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$14.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price −2.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$33.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range HK$46.86 – HK$195.49 · fair‑value band HK$19.11 – HK$33.12 · the HK$59.40 price screens above the HK$26.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Weibo Corp (9898) currently trades at HK$59.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.13, implying the stock looks roughly 56.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Weibo Corp generated revenue of HK$1.8B at a net margin of 21.2%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$393M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$19.11 (bear case) to HK$33.12 (bull case); at HK$59.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -56%, 9898 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$27.98) versus Dividend Discount (HK$8.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services.
Full company description
Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company offers discovery products to help users discover content on its platform; self-expression products that enable its users to express themselves on its platform; and social products to promote social interaction between users on its platform. It also provides advertising and marketing solutions, such as social display advertisements; and promoted marketing offerings, such as Fans Headline, Weibo Express, and promoted feeds, as well as promoted trends and search products that appear alongside user's trends discovery and search behaviors. In addition, the company offers products, such as trends, search, video/live streaming, and editing tools; content customization, copyright contents pooling, and user interaction development; and search list recommendation, trends list recommendation, and Weibo app opening advertisements. Further, it provides back-end management, traffic support, and product services for better displaying and promotion of its account and content; an open application platform that allows users to log into third-party applications with their Weibo account for sharing third-party content on its platform; and Weibo Wallet, a product that enables platform partners to conduct interest generation activities on Weibo, such as handing out red envelops and coupons. It serves ordinary people, celebrities, opinion leaders, and other public figures or influencers, as well as media outlets, businesses, government agencies, charities, and other organizations. The company was formerly known as T.CN Corporation and changed its name to Weibo Corporation in 2012. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Weibo Corp reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$2.3B in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$449M in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
9898 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Weibo Corporation to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 19, 2026
- Weibo Corp (WB) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Advertising Growth Amid User Challenges
- Weibo Q1 2026 Tests AI And Video Push Against Earnings Pressure
- Weibo Announces First Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $343.54 | $145.14 | -58% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $578.85 | $534.91 | -8% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$461.60 | HK$448.17 | -3% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $489.60 | $210.99 | -57% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $153.45 | $39.59 | -74% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $104.84 | $66.96 | -36% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$41.54 | HK$84.61 | +104% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 215,500 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +7% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$33.72 | HK$66.60 | +98% |
| Kakao Corp 035720 | 40,100 KRW | 24,536 KRW | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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