Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd HK$1.15, price HK$2.34, upside -50.9%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Chi Kan Holdings Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.04 – HK$3.65 · fair‑value band HK$0.9200 – HK$1.41 · the HK$2.34 price screens above the HK$1.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Chi Kan Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Chi Kan Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Chi Kan Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of formwork and other construction services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It provides formwork services, including timber and plywood conventional formwork, and aluminum and steel prefabricated framework. The company also engages in the e-commerce business.
Show more
Chi Kan Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of formwork and other construction services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. It provides formwork services, including timber and plywood conventional formwork, and aluminum and steel prefabricated framework. The company also engages in the e-commerce business. Chi Kan Holdings Limited was formerly known as Chi Kan Woodworks Company Limited. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Cheung Sha Wan, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) currently trades at HK$2.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.15, 50.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$1.15 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$2.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.2700, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.9200 (bear) to HK$1.41 (bull), the price of HK$2.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.0B in FY2026 versus HK$1.6B in FY2022, a compound −10.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$68.6M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.3B (≈ $298M) · P/S ratio 2.27 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −6.7% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% · Operating margin 7.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −51%, 9913 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.9200Fair Value HK$1.15Bull HK$1.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.0% (2021) → 6.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 798 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.0% · Below median
Return on assets8.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.75× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF2.9× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chi Kan Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9913
Frequently asked questions
Is Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.15 versus a price of HK$2.34, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9913?
Our model-based fair value for Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is HK$1.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.34.
What is the quality score of 9913?
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9200, optimistic scenario HK$1.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chi Kan Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.15, about −51% upside versus a price of HK$2.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9200, optimistic scenario HK$1.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chi Kan Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9913 use?
Our models discount Chi Kan Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chi Kan Holdings Ltd that is +14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies +14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (+14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.42 %: that much free cash flow Chi Kan Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chi Kan Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.15 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$2.34. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chi Kan Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9913 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.34, fair value HK$1.15, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9913?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.15). For Chi Kan Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chi Kan Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Chi Kan Holdings Ltd at about HK$2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9913?
Our models span a range for Chi Kan Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.9200, base HK$1.15, optimistic HK$1.41 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$2.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9913 from its 52-week high?
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.34, about 8% below its 52-week high of HK$2.55 and 9% above the low of HK$2.15 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chi Kan Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chi Kan Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$2.34, calculated fair value HK$1.15 (−51%), Quality Score 68/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9913 calculated?
We run Chi Kan Holdings Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Chi Kan Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$2.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.15, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chi Kan Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The market capitalisation of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is HK$2.3B (≈ $298M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is 2.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Earnings per share at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The net margin of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is −6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
The operating margin of Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Revenue at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd is growing +18.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913)?
Earnings per share at Chi Kan Holdings Ltd are growing −15.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chi Kan Holdings Ltd (9913) hold?
Chi Kan Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$216M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Chi Kan Holdings Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Chi Kan Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
