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Alphamab Oncology (9966) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alphamab Oncology stock HK$1.47, price HK$6.22, upside -76.3%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG0330A1013

AO Alphamab Oncology logo Thin data Oct 29, 2026

Alphamab Oncology

9966 · HK
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 76% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 43/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +49.0 %/yr in HKD)
Revenue last quarter 15% below a year ago.
Fair value HK$1.47 · Strongly overvalued (−76.3%)
Loss-making · -34.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$27.75 HK$2.12 Fair Value HK$1.47 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.12 – HK$27.75 · fair‑value band HK$0.9700 – HK$1.84 · the HK$6.22 price screens above the HK$1.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Alphamab Oncology, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and commercialization of biotherapeutics for cancer treatment in the People's Republic of China.

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It offers KN035, an injectable PD-L1 inhibitor for the treatment of adult patients with unresectable or metastatic microsatellite instability-high/efficient mismatch repair advanced solid tumors under the ENWEIDA brand.

Its product pipeline includes KN026, an anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) bispecific monoclonal antibody (BsAb) that is in Phase III clinical trials to treat HER2-positive breast cancer and HER2-positive gastric cancer or gastroesophageal junction cancer; KN046, a BsAb immune checkpoint inhibitor in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), squamous NSCLC, triple-negative breast cancer, and recurrent and metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; JSKN003, a biparatopic HER2-targeting antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) that is in Phase III clinical trial to treat HER2-expressing advanced or metastatic solid tumors, HER2-low expression breast cancer, platinum-resistant recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer, primary peritoneal cancer, and fallopian tube cancer.

In addition, the company is developing JSKN016, a bispecific ADC that is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of solid tumors, lung cancer, and breast cancer; JSKN022, a bispecific single-domain antibody; JSKN027, a bispecific ADC that is Phase I clinical trial; JSKN021; KN019; and JSKN033, a subcutaneous ADC in Phase I clinical trial to treat HER2-expressing advanced or metastatic solid tumors.

The company also develops JSKN029, a pre-clinical stage product for oncology applications. Alphamab Oncology was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Alphamab Oncology (9966) currently trades at HK$6.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.47, 76.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.9700 (bear) to HK$1.84 (bull), the price of HK$6.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alphamab Oncology reported revenue of 552M CNY in FY2025 versus 146M CNY in FY2021, a compound +39.4%/yr. Reported net income was −111M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$6.0B (≈ $766M) Small · P/S ratio 12.3 · Net margin −20.1% · Return on equity −10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.4% · Operating margin −16.3% · Revenue (TTM) 518M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −15.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −76%, 9966 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.9700 Fair Value HK$1.47 Bull HK$1.84
Price HK$6.22 · Upside -76.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9700 HK$1.47 HK$1.84 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.9700 HK$1.47 HK$1.84 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 9
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 84
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 88
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 48
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 78
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.0%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+114.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16,609.3% (2019) → −27.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

9966 screens overvalued: fair value 76% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 556 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −76.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −34.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −16.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −15.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.97× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 9.83× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $927.89 $1,275 +37% vs 9966
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$44.48 HK$49.57 +11% vs 9966
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $558.88 $614.77 +10% vs 9966
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,487,000 KRW 1,635,700 KRW +10% vs 9966
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,912 kr 4,303 +10% vs 9966
argenx SE ARGX $892.87 $908.40 +2% vs 9966
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$178.62 −11% vs 9966
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $370.33 $254.12 −31% vs 9966
Celltrion, Inc 068270 191,600 KRW 74,945 KRW −61% vs 9966
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $67.18 $19.01 −72% vs 9966

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Alphamab Oncology · Fair Value
HK$1.47 −76%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alphamab Oncology Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9966

Frequently asked questions

Is Alphamab Oncology (9966) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.47 versus a price of HK$6.22, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9966?
Our model-based fair value for Alphamab Oncology is HK$1.47 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.22.
What is the quality score of 9966?
Alphamab Oncology has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.47 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.9700, optimistic scenario HK$1.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alphamab Oncology stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.47, about −76% upside versus a price of HK$6.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.9700, optimistic scenario HK$1.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
Alphamab Oncology reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 518M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alphamab Oncology it is HK$1.47 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of HK$6.22. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alphamab Oncology stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9966 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$6.22, fair value HK$1.47, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9966?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.47). For Alphamab Oncology the two are HK$4.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alphamab Oncology worth?
The market values Alphamab Oncology at about HK$6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.22; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9966?
Our models span a range for Alphamab Oncology: cautious scenario HK$0.9700, base HK$1.47, optimistic HK$1.84 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price HK$6.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alphamab Oncology (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −10.0%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9966 from its 52-week high?
Alphamab Oncology trades at HK$6.22, about 48% below its 52-week high of HK$11.99 and at the low of HK$6.20 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alphamab Oncology?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alphamab Oncology stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price HK$6.22, calculated fair value HK$1.47 (−76%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9966 calculated?
We run Alphamab Oncology through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Alphamab Oncology itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was HK$6.22. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.47, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alphamab Oncology right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.9700 to HK$1.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alphamab Oncology

How large is the market capitalisation of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The market capitalisation of Alphamab Oncology is HK$6.0B (≈ $766M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alphamab Oncology is 12.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The net margin of Alphamab Oncology is −20.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alphamab Oncology is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alphamab Oncology is −10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
The operating margin of Alphamab Oncology is −16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alphamab Oncology (9966)?
Revenue at Alphamab Oncology is growing −15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +49.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alphamab Oncology (9966) generate?
The free cash flow of Alphamab Oncology is −153M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alphamab Oncology (9966) hold?
Alphamab Oncology holds more cash than debt, 136M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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