Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$21.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from HK$9.48 to HK$9.49 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +0.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$10.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.06 – HK$30.65 · fair‑value band HK$8.03 – HK$10.95 · the HK$14.94 price screens above the HK$9.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) currently trades at HK$14.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.49, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Innocare Pharma Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.5B at a net margin of 29.0%. Revenue grew 38.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$5.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$8.03 (bear case) to HK$10.95 (bull case); at HK$14.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -36%, 9969 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$19.46) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
InnoCare Pharma Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases in China.
Full company description
InnoCare Pharma Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases in China. The company develops Orelabrutinib, an BTK inhibitor to treat patients with relapsed and/or refractory (r/r) chronic lymphocytic leukemia, r/r mantle cell lymphoma, r/r Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia, r/r marginal zone lymphoma, r/r diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)- MCD, r/r central nervous system lymphoma, combo w/MIL-62, systemic lupus erythematosus, immune thrombocytopenia purpura, multiple sclerosis, and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder. It also developing ICP-B02 to treat CD20+B-cell malignancies; ICP-B05 to treat hemato-oncology; ICP-248 to treat chronic lymphocytic leukemia; ICP-332 to treat atopic dermatitis; ICP-488 to treat psoriasis; ICP-538 to treat autoimmune diseases; zurletrectinib (ICP-723) to treat neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase fusion positive cancers; ICP-189 to treat non-small cell lung cancer; and ICP-B05 to treat solid tumor. InnoCare Pharma Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Innocare Pharma Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.3B in FY2025 versus HK$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$626M in FY2025.
9969 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 605 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 314,000 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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