Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Innocare Pharma Ltd HK$10.13, price HK$13.63, upside -25.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$4.06 – HK$30.65 · fair‑value band HK$7.70 – HK$12.74 · the HK$13.63 price screens above the HK$10.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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InnoCare Pharma Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases in China.
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InnoCare Pharma Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases in China. The company develops Orelabrutinib, an BTK inhibitor to treat patients with relapsed and/or refractory (r/r) chronic lymphocytic leukemia, r/r mantle cell lymphoma, r/r Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia, r/r marginal zone lymphoma, r/r diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)- MCD, r/r central nervous system lymphoma, combo w/MIL-62, systemic lupus erythematosus, immune thrombocytopenia purpura, multiple sclerosis, and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder. It also developing ICP-B02 to treat CD20+B-cell malignancies; ICP-B05 to treat hemato-oncology; ICP-248 to treat chronic lymphocytic leukemia; ICP-332 to treat atopic dermatitis; ICP-488 to treat psoriasis; ICP-538 to treat autoimmune diseases; zurletrectinib (ICP-723) to treat neurotrophic tyrosine receptor kinase fusion positive cancers; ICP-189 to treat non-small cell lung cancer; and ICP-B05 to treat solid tumor. InnoCare Pharma Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) currently trades at HK$13.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.13, 25.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$22.74 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$13.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$4.05, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$7.70 (bear) to HK$12.74 (bull), the price of HK$13.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Innocare Pharma Ltd reported revenue of 2.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was 626M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$24.0B (≈ $3.1B) · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 7.64 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4571 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 27.2% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −26%, 9969 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.70Fair Value HK$10.13Bull HK$12.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.3456 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+127.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+341.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+250.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−40,981.4% (2020) → 19.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.2% a year for the price and +13.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−72.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth38.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.65× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)8.13× · Pricier than median
P/FCF156.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)41· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$10.13 versus a price of HK$13.63, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9969?
Our model-based fair value for Innocare Pharma Ltd is HK$10.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.63.
What is the quality score of 9969?
Innocare Pharma Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$10.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.70, optimistic scenario HK$12.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Innocare Pharma Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$10.13, about −26% upside versus a price of HK$13.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.70, optimistic scenario HK$12.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Innocare Pharma Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Innocare Pharma Ltd pay a dividend?
Innocare Pharma Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Innocare Pharma Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +40.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +341.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9969 use?
Our models discount Innocare Pharma Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Innocare Pharma Ltd that is +40.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Innocare Pharma Ltd grew +341.9 % a year. The price currently implies +40.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Innocare Pharma Ltd (+40.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Innocare Pharma Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Innocare Pharma Ltd it is HK$10.13 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$13.63. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Innocare Pharma Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9969 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$13.63, fair value HK$10.13, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9969?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$13.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$10.13). For Innocare Pharma Ltd the two are HK$3.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Innocare Pharma Ltd worth?
The market values Innocare Pharma Ltd at about HK$24.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$13.63; our models calculate a fair value of HK$10.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9969?
Our models span a range for Innocare Pharma Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.70, base HK$10.13, optimistic HK$12.74 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$13.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9969?
Innocare Pharma Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$10.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Balance-sheet figures for Innocare Pharma Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9969 from its 52-week high?
Innocare Pharma Ltd trades at HK$13.63, about 28% below its 52-week high of HK$18.97 and 36% above the low of HK$10.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$10.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Innocare Pharma Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Innocare Pharma Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$13.63, calculated fair value HK$10.13 (−26%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9969 calculated?
We run Innocare Pharma Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$10.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Innocare Pharma Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$13.63. Our model-based fair value is HK$10.13, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Innocare Pharma Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$12.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Innocare Pharma Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The market capitalisation of Innocare Pharma Ltd is HK$24.0B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Innocare Pharma Ltd is 7.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Earnings per share at Innocare Pharma Ltd are HK$0.4571 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The dividend yield of Innocare Pharma Ltd is 1.7% (payout 49.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The net margin of Innocare Pharma Ltd is 27.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Innocare Pharma Ltd is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Innocare Pharma Ltd is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
The operating margin of Innocare Pharma Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Revenue at Innocare Pharma Ltd is growing +38.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969)?
Earnings per share at Innocare Pharma Ltd are growing +500% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Innocare Pharma Ltd (9969) hold?
Innocare Pharma Ltd holds more cash than debt, 5.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026