Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Ascendis Pharma A/S BRL 180, price BRL 77.28, upside +132.4%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$23.50 – R$94.05 · fair‑value band R$109.93 – R$213.01 · the R$77.28 price screens below the R$179.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally.
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Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency; and YORVIPATH, a once-daily subcutaneous injection for the treatment of adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism. It is also developing a pipeline of three independent endocrinology rare disease product candidates in clinical development, as well as focuses on advancing oncology therapeutic candidates. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Hellerup, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) currently trades at R$77.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$179.58, implying the stock looks roughly 57.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$181.75 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$77.28 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at R$73.49, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$109.93 (bear) to R$213.01 (bull), the price of R$77.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ascendis Pharma A/S reported revenue of €720M in FY2025 versus €7.8M in FY2021, a compound +210.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€228M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$6.0B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 1.7 · P/S ratio 6.99 · EPS (TTM) R$44.67 · Net margin −31.7% · Return on equity 33.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −36.5% · Operating margin 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 132%, A1SN34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$109.93Fair Value R$179.58Bull R$213.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$33.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+98.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+141.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+153.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.7%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4,755.1% (2020) → −18.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+45.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.2% a year for the price and +42.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−85.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−0.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)57.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth144.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)1.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF22.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$179.58 versus a price of R$77.28, about +132% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of A1SN34?
Our model-based fair value for Ascendis Pharma A/S is R$179.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$77.28.
What is the quality score of A1SN34?
Ascendis Pharma A/S has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$179.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$109.93, optimistic scenario R$213.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ascendis Pharma A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$179.58, about +132% upside versus a price of R$77.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$109.93, optimistic scenario R$213.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Ascendis Pharma A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €866M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ascendis Pharma A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +153.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of A1SN34 use?
Our models discount Ascendis Pharma A/S at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ascendis Pharma A/S that is +19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ascendis Pharma A/S grew +153.0 % a year. The price currently implies +19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ascendis Pharma A/S (+19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.63 %: that much free cash flow Ascendis Pharma A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ascendis Pharma A/S it is R$179.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$77.28. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ascendis Pharma A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, A1SN34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$77.28, fair value R$179.58, a gap of about +132% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A1SN34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$77.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$179.58). For Ascendis Pharma A/S the two are R$102.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ascendis Pharma A/S worth?
The market values Ascendis Pharma A/S at about R$6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$77.28; our models calculate a fair value of R$179.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A1SN34?
Our models span a range for Ascendis Pharma A/S: cautious scenario R$109.93, base R$179.58, optimistic R$213.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$77.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of A1SN34?
Ascendis Pharma A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$179.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ascendis Pharma A/S (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A1SN34 from its 52-week high?
Ascendis Pharma A/S trades at R$77.28, about 18% below its 52-week high of R$94.05 and 12% above the low of R$69.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$179.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ascendis Pharma A/S?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ascendis Pharma A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$77.28, calculated fair value R$179.58 (+132%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A1SN34 calculated?
We run Ascendis Pharma A/S through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$179.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ascendis Pharma A/S currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$77.28. Our model-based fair value is R$179.58, about +132% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ascendis Pharma A/S right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$109.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R$109.93 to R$213.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ascendis Pharma A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The market capitalisation of Ascendis Pharma A/S is R$6.0B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ascendis Pharma A/S is 6.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Earnings per share at Ascendis Pharma A/S are R$44.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The net margin of Ascendis Pharma A/S is −31.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ascendis Pharma A/S is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ascendis Pharma A/S is −36.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
The operating margin of Ascendis Pharma A/S is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34)?
Revenue at Ascendis Pharma A/S is growing +144% versus a year earlier (3y avg +141%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Ascendis Pharma A/S (A1SN34) carry?
The net debt of Ascendis Pharma A/S is €256M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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