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Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Airtel Africa Plc $4.54, price $4.45, upside +2.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Airtel Africa Plc
AAFRF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $4.54 · Fairly valued (+2.0%)
✓Quality 72/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 80/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range $1.03 – $5.60 · fair‑value band $3.39 – $6.28 · the $4.45 price screens below the $4.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Airtel Africa Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications and mobile money services in Nigeria, East Africa, and Francophone Africa.
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Airtel Africa Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications and mobile money services in Nigeria, East Africa, and Francophone Africa. It offers pre and post-paid wireless voice, international roaming, and fixed line telephony services; data services, including 4G and 5G, home broadband, fibre, and data centers; and mobile money services, such as digital wallet payments systems, microloans, merchant, savings, insurance, international, and international money transfers. The company also provides messaging, value added, and tower sharing services, as well as infrastructure sharing, mobile commerce, and support services. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Airtel Africa Plc is a subsidiary of Airtel Africa Mauritius Limited.
Stock analysis
Airtel Africa Plc, (AAFRF) currently trades at $4.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.54, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.96 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $4.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5800, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.39 (bear) to $6.28 (bull), the price of $4.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Airtel Africa Plc, reported revenue of $6.3B in FY2026 versus $4.7B in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $670M in FY2026, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $17.8B · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 2.48 · EPS (TTM) $0.1900 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 2%, AAFRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.39
Fair Value $4.54
Bull $6.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0606 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$7.93
$13.70
$23.50
78
Growth DCF
$7.91
$13.31
$22.29
76
Owner Earnings
$5.76
$9.89
$16.90
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$7.93
$13.70
$23.50
78
Owner Earnings
$5.76
$9.89
$16.90
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.19
$8.08
$11.86
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$7.57
$12.90
$19.46
74
5Y P/E Exit
$4.65
$6.99
$9.55
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.94
$8.96
$13.30
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$7.62
$12.45
$19.55
67
10Y P/E Exit
$5.70
$8.17
$11.40
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.25
$5.41
$7.40
64
Lynch FV
$1.39
$1.99
$2.58
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.39
$1.99
$2.58
57
EPV
$4.21
$4.86
$5.43
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.6100
$1.27
$2.01
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.6100
$1.07
$1.33
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.03
$4.04
$5.05
63
P/S Multiple
$2.34
$3.12
$3.90
58
P/B Multiple
$2.27
$3.03
$3.78
55
EV/EBIT
$7.19
$9.49
$11.79
66
EV/EBITDA
$8.05
$10.64
$13.22
67
EV/Revenue
$3.94
$5.50
$7.06
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4300
$0.5800
$0.8700
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$7.91
$13.31
$22.29
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.19
$8.09
$11.77
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.15
$1.54
$2.76
73
ROIC Compounder
$4.45
$5.45
$6.53
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.38
$3.40
$4.41
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +15.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 33%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 55% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.9% a year for the price and +12.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+21.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+15.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.2%
Projected 2031 (sales)+10.5%
Watch AAFRF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- African payments firm Airtel Money plots debut on London stock market
- Airtel Africa PLC (AAFRF) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Highlights: Robust Revenue Growth Amidst Rising ...
- Airtel Africa Plc GAAP EPS of $0.04, revenue of $1.85B beats by $130M
- Bharti Airtel May Be About to Take Airtel Africa Private
Compare Airtel Africa Plc, with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 80941 | HK$67.30 | HK$114.85 | +71% |
| Verizon Communications Inc VZ | $45.87 | $70.27 | +53% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $162.98 | $272.88 | +67% |
| AT&T Inc T | $24.48 | $51.11 | +109% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,741 | ₹1,883 | +8% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.16 | ¥8.36 | +36% |
| Saudi Telecom Company 7010 | 43.22 SAR | 41.80 SAR | −3% |
| Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 | 4.28 SGD | 2.16 SGD | −50% |
| Swisscom AG SCMN | CHF 639.00 | CHF 505.18 | −21% |
| Telstra Group TLS | A$4.83 | A$4.43 | −8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.54 versus a price of $4.45, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AAFRF?
Our model-based fair value for Airtel Africa Plc, is $4.54 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.45.
What is the quality score of AAFRF?
Airtel Africa Plc, has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.54 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Airtel Africa Plc, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.54, about +2% upside versus a price of $4.45 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Airtel Africa Plc, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Airtel Africa Plc, pay a dividend?
Airtel Africa Plc, currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Airtel Africa Plc, would have to grow free cash flow by -6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAFRF use?
Our models discount Airtel Africa Plc, at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Airtel Africa Plc, that is -6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Airtel Africa Plc, grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies -6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Airtel Africa Plc, (-6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.86 %: that much free cash flow Airtel Africa Plc, produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Airtel Africa Plc, it is $4.54 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $4.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Airtel Africa Plc, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AAFRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.45, fair value $4.54, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAFRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.54). For Airtel Africa Plc, the two are $0.0875 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Airtel Africa Plc, worth?
The market values Airtel Africa Plc, at about $17.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $4.45; our models calculate a fair value of $4.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAFRF?
Our models span a range for Airtel Africa Plc,: cautious scenario $3.39, base $4.54, optimistic $6.28 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $4.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AAFRF from its 52-week high?
Airtel Africa Plc, trades at $4.45, about 21% below its 52-week high of $5.60 and 53% above the low of $2.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Airtel Africa Plc,?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Airtel Africa Plc, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $4.45, calculated fair value $4.54 (+2%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAFRF calculated?
We run Airtel Africa Plc, through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Airtel Africa Plc, currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.45. Our model-based fair value is $4.54, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Airtel Africa Plc, right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($3.39 to $6.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Airtel Africa Plc,
How large is the market capitalisation of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The market capitalisation of Airtel Africa Plc, is $17.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Airtel Africa Plc, is 23.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Airtel Africa Plc, is 2.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Earnings per share at Airtel Africa Plc, are $0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The dividend yield of Airtel Africa Plc, is 1.6% (payout 37.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The net margin of Airtel Africa Plc, is 10.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Airtel Africa Plc, is 26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Airtel Africa Plc, is 14.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
The operating margin of Airtel Africa Plc, is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Revenue at Airtel Africa Plc, is growing +32.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF)?
Earnings per share at Airtel Africa Plc, are growing +258% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) carry?
The net debt of Airtel Africa Plc, is $4.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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