Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc (AARD) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $143M
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc
AARD · US
Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 16, 2026, revised from $4.65 to $4.63 (−0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.06 to $5.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $3.48 – $17.41 · fair‑value band $3.06 – $5.79 · the $6.54 price screens above the $4.63 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
Analysis
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc (AARD) currently trades at $6.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.63, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -58.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $46.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.06 (bear case) to $5.79 (bull case); at $6.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -29%, AARD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases. Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$57.6M in FY2025.
AARD screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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