Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA €4.86, price €6.15, upside -21.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.19 – €7.45 · fair‑value band €3.98 – €6.13 · the €6.15 price screens above the €4.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli S.p.A. provides heat management, facility management, and energy service in Italy.
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Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli S.p.A. provides heat management, facility management, and energy service in Italy. The company also engages in the construction of technological installations, building and plant renovations, wards, installations, heating plants, mechanical and electrical installations, cogeneration plants, and building and plant engineering works; trades in petroleum products and lubricants; and project financing services. It serves public administrations, private hospitals, and private companies. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Castegnato, Italy.
Stock analysis
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP) currently trades at €6.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.86, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €5.34 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the €6.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.6200, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.98 (bear) to €6.13 (bull), the price of €6.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA reported revenue of €81.5M in FY2025 versus €60.5M in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was €11.5M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €187M · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) €0.4000 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −21%, ABP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.98Fair Value €4.86Bull €6.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price.
Compare Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.86 versus a price of €6.15, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ABP?
Our model-based fair value for Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is €4.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.15.
What is the quality score of ABP?
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.98, optimistic scenario €6.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.86, about −21% upside versus a price of €6.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.98, optimistic scenario €6.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €83.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA pay a dividend?
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABP use?
Our models discount Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.40 %: that much free cash flow Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA it is €4.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €6.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ABP trades above its calculated fair value: price €6.15, fair value €4.86, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.86). For Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA the two are €1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA worth?
The market values Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA at about €187M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €6.15; our models calculate a fair value of €4.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABP?
Our models span a range for Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA: cautious scenario €3.98, base €4.86, optimistic €6.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €6.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABP?
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABP from its 52-week high?
Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA trades at €6.15, about 17% below its 52-week high of €7.45 and 18% above the low of €5.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €6.15, calculated fair value €4.86 (−21%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABP calculated?
We run Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €6.15. Our model-based fair value is €4.86, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The market capitalisation of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is €187M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Earnings per share at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA are €0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The dividend yield of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 1.1% (payout 17.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The net margin of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 14.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
The operating margin of Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Revenue at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA (ABP)?
Earnings per share at Azienda Bresciana Petroli Nocivelli SpA are growing +9.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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