American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of American Coastal Insurance Corp $18.42, price $9.11, upside +102.2%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2717 – $12.96 · fair‑value band $13.07 – $73.68 · the $9.11 price screens below the $18.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family homeowners, renters, and condominium unit owners.
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American Coastal Insurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the commercial and personal property and casualty insurance business in the United States. The company provides structure, content, and liability coverage for standard single-family homeowners, renters, and condominium unit owners. It also offers commercial multi-peril property insurance for residential condominium associations and apartments, as well as coverage to policyholders for loss or damage to buildings, inventory, and equipment caused by fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. In addition, the company provides equipment breakdown, identity theft, and flood policies. The company markets and distributes its products through a network of independent agencies. The company was formerly known as United Insurance Holdings Corp. and changed its name to American Coastal Insurance Corporation in July 2023. American Coastal Insurance Corporation was founded in 1999 and is based in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
Stock analysis
American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) currently trades at $9.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.42, implying the stock looks roughly 50.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $19.23 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $9.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.39, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.07 (bear) to $73.68 (bull), the price of $9.11 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
American Coastal Insurance Corp reported revenue of $335M in FY2025 versus $229M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $107M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $508M · P/E ratio 4.3 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $2.14 · Net margin 31.8% · Return on equity 35.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 39.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 102%, ACIC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.07Fair Value $18.42Bull $73.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 43%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.6% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare American Coastal Insurance Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.42 versus a price of $9.11, about +102% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ACIC?
Our model-based fair value for American Coastal Insurance Corp is $18.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.11.
What is the quality score of ACIC?
American Coastal Insurance Corp has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.07, optimistic scenario $73.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Coastal Insurance Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.42, about +102% upside versus a price of $9.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.07, optimistic scenario $73.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
American Coastal Insurance Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $334M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, American Coastal Insurance Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -16.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ACIC use?
Our models discount American Coastal Insurance Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For American Coastal Insurance Corp that is -16.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at American Coastal Insurance Corp grew -16.9 % a year. The price currently implies -16.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into American Coastal Insurance Corp (-16.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.63 %: that much free cash flow American Coastal Insurance Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Coastal Insurance Corp it is $18.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.11. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Coastal Insurance Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ACIC trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.11, fair value $18.42, a gap of about +102% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACIC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.42). For American Coastal Insurance Corp the two are $9.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Coastal Insurance Corp worth?
The market values American Coastal Insurance Corp at about $508M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.11; our models calculate a fair value of $18.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ACIC?
Our models span a range for American Coastal Insurance Corp: cautious scenario $13.07, base $18.42, optimistic $73.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ACIC?
American Coastal Insurance Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.3, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ACIC?
The PEG ratio of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 3.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Coastal Insurance Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 35.9%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACIC from its 52-week high?
American Coastal Insurance Corp trades at $9.11, about 26% below its 52-week high of $12.26 and at the low of $9.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Coastal Insurance Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Coastal Insurance Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.11, calculated fair value $18.42 (+102%), Quality Score 76/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACIC calculated?
We run American Coastal Insurance Corp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. American Coastal Insurance Corp currently trades 102 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.11. Our model-based fair value is $18.42, about +102% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Coastal Insurance Corp right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($13.07 to $73.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) come from?
Earnings per share at American Coastal Insurance Corp grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −11.0 %, EBIT margin +16.3 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American Coastal Insurance Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The market capitalisation of American Coastal Insurance Corp is $508M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Earnings per share at American Coastal Insurance Corp are $2.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The net margin of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 31.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 35.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
The operating margin of American Coastal Insurance Corp is 39.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Revenue at American Coastal Insurance Corp is growing −1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC)?
Earnings per share at American Coastal Insurance Corp are growing −9.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does American Coastal Insurance Corp (ACIC) hold?
American Coastal Insurance Corp holds more cash than debt, $46.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026