Aegon NV (AEG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Aegon NV $8.51, price $8.80, upside -3.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.01 – $9.53 · fair‑value band $5.52 – $10.64 · the $8.80 price screens above the $8.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Aegon Ltd. provides insurance services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers retirement plans, mutual funds, and unit-linked products; and annuities, life, and health insurance. The company provides its products under the Transamerica and World Financial Group brands. Aegon Ltd.
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Aegon Ltd. provides insurance services in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers retirement plans, mutual funds, and unit-linked products; and annuities, life, and health insurance. The company provides its products under the Transamerica and World Financial Group brands. Aegon Ltd. was founded in 1844 and is based in Schiphol, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Aegon NV ADR (AEG) currently trades at $8.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.51, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.97 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $8.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.81, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.52 (bear) to $10.64 (bull), the price of $8.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aegon NV ADR reported revenue of €26.9B in FY2025 versus €46.5B in FY2021, a compound −12.8%/yr. Reported net income was €977M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −3%, AEG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.52Fair Value $8.51Bull $10.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2236 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
’12
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’19
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.8% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.51 versus a price of $8.80, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AEG?
Our model-based fair value for Aegon NV ADR is $8.51 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.80.
What is the quality score of AEG?
Aegon NV ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aegon NV (AEG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.51 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $10.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aegon NV ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.51, about −3% upside versus a price of $8.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.52, optimistic scenario $10.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aegon NV (AEG)?
Aegon NV ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Aegon NV ADR pay a dividend?
Aegon NV ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aegon NV (AEG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aegon NV ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AEG use?
Our models discount Aegon NV ADR at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aegon NV ADR that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aegon NV (AEG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aegon NV ADR grew -8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aegon NV (AEG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aegon NV ADR (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.05 %: that much free cash flow Aegon NV ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aegon NV (AEG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aegon NV ADR it is $8.51 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $8.80. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aegon NV ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AEG trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.80, fair value $8.51, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AEG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.51). For Aegon NV ADR the two are $0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aegon NV ADR worth?
The market values Aegon NV ADR at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $8.80; our models calculate a fair value of $8.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AEG?
Our models span a range for Aegon NV ADR: cautious scenario $5.52, base $8.51, optimistic $10.64 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $8.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AEG?
Aegon NV ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 14.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 21.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AEG?
The PEG ratio of Aegon NV ADR is 14.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aegon NV (AEG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aegon NV ADR (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AEG from its 52-week high?
Aegon NV ADR trades at $8.80, about 8% below its 52-week high of $9.53 and 33% above the low of $6.60 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aegon NV ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, AXA SA, Zurich Insurance Group, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aegon NV ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $8.80, calculated fair value $8.51 (−3%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AEG calculated?
We run Aegon NV ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Aegon NV ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $8.80. Our model-based fair value is $8.51, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aegon NV ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($5.52 to $10.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Aegon NV (AEG) come from?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV ADR grew +3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.2 %, EBIT margin +17.5 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aegon NV ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The market capitalisation of Aegon NV ADR is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aegon NV ADR is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aegon NV (AEG)?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV ADR are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The dividend yield of Aegon NV ADR is 4.5% (payout 57.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The net margin of Aegon NV ADR is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aegon NV ADR is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aegon NV (AEG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aegon NV ADR is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aegon NV (AEG)?
The operating margin of Aegon NV ADR is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aegon NV (AEG)?
Revenue at Aegon NV ADR is growing −13.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aegon NV (AEG)?
Earnings per share at Aegon NV ADR are growing −46.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aegon NV (AEG) carry?
The net debt of Aegon NV ADR is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026