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Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $268M

AE Alliance Entertainment Holding logo Alliance Entertainment Holding AENT · US
Price$5.66
Fair Value$4.78
Upside-15.6%
Quality53/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range $3.07 – $6.47 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Share price −4.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($3.07 to $6.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$10.50 $0.7440 Fair Value $4.78 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7440 – $10.50 · fair‑value band $3.07 – $6.47 · the $5.66 price screens above the $4.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) currently trades at $5.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.78, implying the stock looks roughly 15.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alliance Entertainment Holding generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue grew 21.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.6%. Net debt stands at $89.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.07 (bear case) to $6.47 (bull case); at $5.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -16%, AENT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $2.63 $3.56 $4.93 80
Residual Income $1.80 $2.09 $3.63 76
Rev-Margin DCF $3.14 $5.25 $7.84 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.54 $3.52 $5.10 38
Owner Earnings $1.63 $2.38 $3.58 31
5Y Revenue Exit $3.14 $5.15 $8.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.36 $5.54 $8.41 41
5Y P/E Exit $2.74 $4.46 $6.52 38
10Y Revenue Exit $2.73 $4.02 $5.39 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.95 $4.22 $5.57 37
10Y P/E Exit $2.62 $3.65 $4.62 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.01 $2.46 $2.77 54
EPV $2.46 $2.90 $3.27 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.88 $6.51 $8.13 63
P/S Multiple $3.77 $5.03 $6.29 58
P/B Multiple $3.77 $5.03 $6.29 55
EV/EBIT $6.72 $9.39 $12.05 53
EV/EBITDA $5.01 $7.09 $9.18 54
EV/Revenue $4.12 $6.43 $8.74 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.01 $1.36 $2.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.63 $3.56 $4.93 80
Rev-Margin DCF $3.14 $5.25 $7.84 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.80 $2.09 $3.63 76
ROIC Compounder $2.46 $2.97 $3.47 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.44 $4.91 $6.39 68

Widest divergence: Multiples ($6.43) versus Asset-Based ($1.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +21.2%
Net margin 2.0%
Return on equity 20.6%
Free cash flow $26.8M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.2
More key figures
Operating margin 1.4%
EPS (TTM) $0.4300
EPS growth (YoY) +24.8%
Net debt $89.7M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation operates as a wholesaler and e-commerce provider for the entertainment industry worldwide. It offers vinyl records, video games, digital video discs, blu-rays, toys, compact discs, collectibles, and other entertainment and consumer products. The company also provides third party logistics products and services.

Full company description

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation operates as a wholesaler and e-commerce provider for the entertainment industry worldwide. It offers vinyl records, video games, digital video discs, blu-rays, toys, compact discs, collectibles, and other entertainment and consumer products. The company also provides third party logistics products and services. It distributes its physical media, entertainment products, hardware, and accessories through multi-channel strategy. The company exports its products. Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Plantation, Florida.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alliance Entertainment Holding reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $15.1M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.1B
Latest YoY
−3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Revenue −5.3%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $1.4B
FY23 $1.2B
FY24 $1.1B
FY25 $1.1B
Net income −18.5%/yr
FY21 $34.2M
FY22 $28.6M
FY23 −$35.4M
FY24 $4.6M
FY25 $15.1M

AENT screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alliance Entertainment Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AENT

Peer Group

Entertainment · 265 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −16% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Above median
Revenue growth 21% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.63× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.60× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 10.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 13 · sector 6
FUTURE 100 · sector 10
PAST 82 · sector 0
HEALTH 68 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc ZNFL C$6.77 C$2.96 -56%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $96.30 $89.55 -7%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $26.87 $9.13 -66%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $178.44 $46.89 -74%
Universal Music Group UMG €18.91 €14.78 -22%
TKO Group TKO $184.40 $22.16 -88%
Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO 55.00 MXN 60.49 MXN +10%
Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 ¥11.77 ¥10.97 -7%
PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN 456.00 IDR 221.09 IDR -52%
Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS ₹298.25 ₹63.45 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.78 versus a price of $5.66, about −16% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AENT?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Entertainment Holding is $4.78 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $5.66.
What is the quality score of AENT?
Alliance Entertainment Holding has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)?
Alliance Entertainment Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AENT?
The net profit margin of Alliance Entertainment Holding is about 2.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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