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Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Afcon Holdings Ltd ILS 194, price ILS 558, upside -65.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · Il · ISIN IL0005780130

AH Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Afcon Holdings Ltd

AFHL · TA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 194.06 ILA · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −5.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Insider activity 45/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

609.50 ILA 75.24 ILA Fair Value 194.06 ILA May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 75.24 ILA – 609.50 ILA · fair‑value band 107.86 ILA – 290.75 ILA · the 557.80 ILA price screens above the 194.06 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Afcon Holdings Ltd develops and executes solutions for construction projects in Israel and internationally. It provides electric charging solutions; generates electricity from wind energies; delivers hybrid systems and technological solutions for dealing with water and wastewater; and markets, sells, installs, and maintains green technologies.

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Afcon Holdings Ltd develops and executes solutions for construction projects in Israel and internationally. It provides electric charging solutions; generates electricity from wind energies; delivers hybrid systems and technological solutions for dealing with water and wastewater; and markets, sells, installs, and maintains green technologies. The company also conducts projects in the field of end-to-end communication solutions and security systems, as well as in energy storage and renewable energies; installs multimedia and low-voltage; and develops and delivers communication services, infrastructure, and telecom solutions. In addition, it plans and installs fire detection and extinguishing systems; provides technological solutions and products for very low voltage, control, and automation; conducts integrative security-related projects; technology-enhanced projects for electromechanical systems; and develops, produces, and installs peripheral electronic security and protection systems using advanced technologies. Further, the company set up and maintain parking system projects; develops solutions in monitoring and control systems; radars for securing open-space facilities; deals with construction and civil engineering and electro-mechanical systems; provides electricity, air conditioning, plumbing, cooling, and low voltage electricity services; and manufactures electric boards for high voltage gas-insulated switchgears (GIS) and air-insulated switchgears (AIS), and for low voltage. Additionally, it markets and distributes switching, control, communications, and electrical installation, as well as communication products; provides consultancy services and technical solutions; air conditioning and ventilation systems services; and develops and executes concession projects. The company was formerly known as Afcon Industries Group. The company was founded in 1945 and is based in Petah Tikva, Israel. Afcon Holdings Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Shlomo Group.

Stock analysis

Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) currently trades at 557.80 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 194.06 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 187.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 232.36 ILA per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 557.80 ILA price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 45.59 ILA, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 107.86 ILA (bear) to 290.75 ILA (bull), the price of 557.80 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Afcon Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.7B ILS in FY2025 versus 2.1B ILS in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 77.0M ILS in FY2025, compounding −10.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 3.0B ILA · P/E ratio 36.7 · P/S ratio 1.68 · EPS (TTM) 15.19 ILA · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −65%, AFHL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 107.86 ILA Fair Value 194.06 ILA Bull 290.75 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.57 ILS per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 102.41 ILA 168.44 ILA 260.35 ILA 79
Growth DCF 105.75 ILA 165.87 ILA 245.49 ILA 78
Owner Earnings 239.13 ILA 365.83 ILA 542.20 ILA 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 102.41 ILA 168.44 ILA 260.35 ILA 79
Owner Earnings 239.13 ILA 365.83 ILA 542.20 ILA 76
5Y Revenue Exit 120.49 ILA 215.19 ILA 333.20 ILA 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 179.26 ILA 321.15 ILA 482.07 ILA 74
5Y P/E Exit 124.62 ILA 222.64 ILA 321.55 ILA 70
10Y Revenue Exit 106.82 ILA 189.17 ILA 293.76 ILA 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 148.19 ILA 259.68 ILA 401.11 ILA 67
10Y P/E Exit 114.62 ILA 194.13 ILA 285.36 ILA 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 90.55 ILA 231.23 ILA 300.83 ILA 65
PEG = 1.0 43.16 ILA 61.65 ILA 80.15 ILA 57
EPV 123.32 ILA 150.11 ILA 173.23 ILA 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 30.39 ILA 56.83 ILA 91.69 ILA 66
DDM Multi-Stage 30.39 ILA 45.59 ILA 61.33 ILA 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 209.72 ILA 279.63 ILA 349.54 ILA 63
P/S Multiple 169.78 ILA 226.37 ILA 282.96 ILA 58
P/B Multiple 169.78 ILA 226.37 ILA 282.96 ILA 55
EV/EBIT 218.07 ILA 306.21 ILA 394.36 ILA 65
EV/EBITDA 262.50 ILA 365.47 ILA 468.43 ILA 67
EV/Revenue 142.36 ILA 223.25 ILA 304.14 ILA 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 57.12 ILA 76.54 ILA 114.24 ILA 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 105.75 ILA 165.87 ILA 245.49 ILA 78
Rev-Margin DCF 120.49 ILA 216.02 ILA 320.20 ILA 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income 103.19 ILA 118.98 ILA 218.95 ILA 73
ROIC Compounder 124.95 ILA 162.72 ILA 206.52 ILA 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 162.65 ILA 232.36 ILA 302.07 ILA 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.6% a year for the price.

AFHL screens 187% overvalued. Compare with Amphenol Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 644 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −63% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.83× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.44× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 20.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)62 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)58 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)32 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electronic Components stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amphenol Corporation APH $82.84 $91.12 +10%
Delta Electronics, Inc 2308 1,900 TWD 519.57 TWD −73%
Corning Incorporated GLW $159.69 $34.01 −79%
Luxshare Precision Industry Co 002475 ¥54.84 ¥19.37 −65%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co 009150 1,507,000 KRW 178,632 KRW −88%
Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co 002384 ¥198.12 ¥21.19 −89%
TE Connectivity plc TEL $213.48 $140.75 −34%
Shengyi Technology Co 600183 ¥143.45 ¥66.42 −54%
Flex Ltd FLEX $114.45 $51.46 −55%
Celestica Inc CLS $356.09 $116.21 −67%

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Afcon Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
194.06 ILA −187%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Afcon Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFHL

Frequently asked questions

Is Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 194.06 ILA versus a price of 557.80 ILA, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFHL?
Our model-based fair value for Afcon Holdings Ltd is 194.06 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 557.80 ILA.
What is the quality score of AFHL?
Afcon Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 194.06 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 107.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 290.75 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Afcon Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 194.06 ILA, about −65% upside versus a price of 557.80 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 107.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 290.75 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Afcon Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Afcon Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Afcon Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Afcon Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +40.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFHL use?
Our models discount Afcon Holdings Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Afcon Holdings Ltd that is +40.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Afcon Holdings Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +40.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Afcon Holdings Ltd (+40.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.54 %: that much free cash flow Afcon Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Afcon Holdings Ltd it is 194.06 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 557.80 ILA. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Afcon Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AFHL trades above its calculated fair value: price 557.80 ILA, fair value 194.06 ILA, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (557.80 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (194.06 ILA). For Afcon Holdings Ltd the two are 363.74 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Afcon Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Afcon Holdings Ltd at about 3.0B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 557.80 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 194.06 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFHL?
Our models span a range for Afcon Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario 107.86 ILA, base 194.06 ILA, optimistic 290.75 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 557.80 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFHL?
Afcon Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 194.06 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Afcon Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFHL from its 52-week high?
Afcon Holdings Ltd trades at 557.80 ILA, about 8% below its 52-week high of 609.50 ILA and 165% above the low of 210.22 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 194.06 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Afcon Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Luxshare Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Afcon Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 557.80 ILA, calculated fair value 194.06 ILA (−65%), Quality Score 49/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFHL calculated?
We run Afcon Holdings Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 194.06 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Afcon Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 557.80 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 194.06 ILA, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Afcon Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (290.75 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (107.86 ILA to 290.75 ILA). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Afcon Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The market capitalisation of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 3.0B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 1.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Earnings per share at Afcon Holdings Ltd are 15.19 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The dividend yield of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 1.6% (payout 59.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The net margin of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
The operating margin of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Revenue at Afcon Holdings Ltd is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL)?
Earnings per share at Afcon Holdings Ltd are growing +72.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Afcon Holdings Ltd (AFHL) carry?
The net debt of Afcon Holdings Ltd is 482M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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