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Afry AB (AFXXF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $1.5B

AA Afry AB logo Afry AB AFXXF · US
Price$12.90
Fair Value$12.82
Upside-0.6%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: High Range $9.62 – $16.03 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $15.75 to $12.82 (−18.6%) since Jun 24, 2026.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from $9.62 (bear) to $16.03 (bull), base $12.82. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$16.62 $11.31 Fair Value $12.82 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.31 – $16.62 · fair‑value band $9.62 – $16.03 · the $12.90 price screens above the $12.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Afry AB (AFXXF) currently trades at $12.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 0.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Afry AB generated revenue of $26.2B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.1%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $9.62 (bear case) to $16.03 (bull case); at $12.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -1%, AFXXF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $181.95 $300.02 $468.56 80
Residual Income $88.00 $90.55 $88.27 76
Rev-Margin DCF $141.04 $242.84 $373.71 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $184.90 $318.78 $522.06 38
Owner Earnings $128.80 $226.05 $373.72 31
5Y Revenue Exit $141.04 $243.64 $379.57 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $183.61 $330.82 $513.17 41
5Y P/E Exit $122.07 $204.77 $296.37 38
10Y Revenue Exit $151.56 $248.95 $392.02 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $181.25 $307.10 $493.53 37
10Y P/E Exit $144.03 $223.03 $328.81 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $49.80 $226.71 $311.03 54
Lynch FV $59.37 $84.81 $110.25 50
PEG = 1.0 $59.37 $84.81 $110.25 46
EPV $82.95 $97.01 $108.73 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $48.36 $87.15 $119.97 70
DDM Multi-Stage $48.36 $79.61 $93.10 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $115.35 $153.80 $192.25 63
P/S Multiple $93.38 $124.50 $155.63 58
P/B Multiple $93.38 $124.50 $155.63 55
EV/EBIT $174.17 $238.95 $303.73 53
EV/EBITDA $203.06 $277.47 $351.88 54
EV/Revenue $118.54 $177.98 $237.43 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $58.03 $77.75 $116.05 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $181.95 $300.02 $468.56 80
Rev-Margin DCF $141.04 $242.84 $373.71 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $88.00 $90.55 $88.27 76
ROIC Compounder $82.95 $97.01 $108.73 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $95.78 $136.83 $177.88 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($243.64) versus Asset-Based ($77.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $26.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.3%
Net margin 3.1%
Return on equity 6.1%
Free cash flow $2.1B FY2025
P/E ratio 17.4
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $0.7400
EPS growth (YoY) -4.0%
Net debt $5.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments.

Full company description

Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments. The company offers architecture and design services; automation and manufacturing solutions; automotive and mobility services; building solutions for airports, culture and sports facilities, high security facilities, hospitals, healthcare and research facilities, hotels and restaurants, housing and industrial facilities, offices, retail properties, schools and academic facilities, and stations and terminals; defense technology systems; digital solutions and information technology services; and engineering and consulting services for energy and power applications. It also provides sustainable and environmental solutions; services for food, life science, and pharmaceutical industries; management consulting services; solutions for processing industries, including mining and metals, food and beverage, pulp and paper, and chemical industries, as well as biorefining and biobased solutions; product development services; project management services; transport infrastructure services; solutions for water management; and consulting services and software products. The company was formerly known as ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) and changed its name to Afry AB in June 2021. Afry AB was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Afry AB reported revenue of $25.7B in FY2025 versus $20.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $798M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$25.7B
Latest YoY
−5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y)
+11.7%
Revenue +6.3%/yr
FY21 $20.1B
FY22 $23.6B
FY23 $27.0B
FY24 $27.2B
FY25 $25.7B
Net income −8.3%/yr
FY21 $1.1B
FY22 $974M
FY23 $1.1B
FY24 $1.2B
FY25 $798M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Afry AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFXXF

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.4× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 33 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 24 · sector 26
HEALTH 86 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 33

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,815 ₹1,994 -48%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 346,000 KRW 268,779 KRW -22%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 99,000 KRW 63,993 KRW -35%
United Integrated Services Co 2404 1,250 TWD 925.62 TWD -26%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 42,550 KRW 44,840 KRW +5%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹232.67 ₹61.46 -74%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 16,240 KRW 6,507 KRW -60%
NBCC (India) Limited NBCC ₹96.32 ₹48.22 -50%
Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO ₹1,330 ₹730.69 -45%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 92,700 KRW 20,172 KRW -78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Afry AB (AFXXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.82 versus a price of $12.90, about −1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AFXXF?
Our model-based fair value for Afry AB is $12.82 (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $12.90.
What is the quality score of AFXXF?
Afry AB has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Afry AB (AFXXF)?
Afry AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AFXXF?
The net profit margin of Afry AB is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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