ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) $15.55, price $10.05, upside +54.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.05 – $16.62 · fair‑value band $11.66 – $21.19 · the $10.05 price screens below the $15.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments.
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Afry AB provides engineering, design, and advisory services for the infrastructure, industry, and energy sectors in the Nordics, North America, South America, Asia, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Energy, Industry, and Transportation & Places segments. The company offers architecture and design services; automation and manufacturing solutions; automotive and mobility services; building solutions for airports, culture and sports facilities, high security facilities, hospitals, healthcare and research facilities, hotels and restaurants, housing and industrial facilities, offices, retail properties, schools and academic facilities, and stations and terminals; defense technology systems; digital solutions and information technology services; and engineering and consulting services for energy and power applications. It also provides sustainable and environmental solutions; services for food, life science, and pharmaceutical industries; management consulting services; solutions for processing industries, including mining and metals, food and beverage, pulp and paper, and chemical industries, as well as biorefining and biobased solutions; product development services; project management services; transport infrastructure services; solutions for water management; and consulting services and software products. The company was formerly known as ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) and changed its name to Afry AB in June 2021. Afry AB was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) currently trades at $10.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.55, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $153.80 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $10.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $77.75, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.66 (bear) to $21.19 (bull), the price of $10.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) reported revenue of 25.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 20.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 798M SEK in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.7400 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Revenue (TTM) 26.2B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 55%, AFXXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.66Fair Value $15.55Bull $21.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5413 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.5% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+55% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.14× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFXXF
Frequently asked questions
Is ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.55 versus a price of $10.05, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AFXXF?
Our model-based fair value for ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is $15.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.05.
What is the quality score of AFXXF?
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.66, optimistic scenario $21.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.55, about +55% upside versus a price of $10.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.66, optimistic scenario $21.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AFXXF use?
Our models discount ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) that is -6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies -6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (-6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.83 %: that much free cash flow ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) it is $15.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AFXXF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.05, fair value $15.55, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFXXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.55). For ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) the two are $5.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) worth?
The market values ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.05; our models calculate a fair value of $15.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFXXF?
Our models span a range for ÅF Pöyry AB (publ): cautious scenario $11.66, base $15.55, optimistic $21.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFXXF?
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFXXF from its 52-week high?
ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) trades at $10.05, about 34% below its 52-week high of $15.19 and at the low of $10.05 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ÅF Pöyry AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.05, calculated fair value $15.55 (+55%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFXXF calculated?
We run ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $10.05. Our model-based fair value is $15.55, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($11.66 to $21.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) come from?
Earnings per share at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The market capitalisation of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Earnings per share at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) are $0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The net margin of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Revenue at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF)?
Earnings per share at ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) are growing −4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (AFXXF) carry?
The net debt of ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) is 5.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026