Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Auckland International Airport Ltd stock A$3.26, price A$6.69, upside -51.3%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?No
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
Industrials · AU · Home New Zealand · ISIN NZAIAE0002S6
AIBroad dataOct 27, 2026
Auckland International Airport Ltd
AIA · AU
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 51% below what the stock costs today.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.02 – A$8.07 · fair‑value band A$2.29 – A$4.17 · the A$6.69 price screens above the A$3.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Auckland International Airport Limited provides airport facilities, supporting infrastructure, and aeronautical services in New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Aeronautical, Retail and Carparking, and Property.
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The Aeronautical segment provides services that facilitate the movement of aircraft, passengers, and cargo, as well as utility services, which support the airport; and leases space for facilities, such as terminals.
The Retail and Carparking segment offers services to the retailers within the terminals; and car parking facilities for passengers, visitors, and airport staff.
The Property segment leases space on airport land outside the terminals, including cargo buildings, hangars, and stand-alone investment properties. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Manukau, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) currently trades at A$6.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.26, 51.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$3.39 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$6.69 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.8700, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.29 (bear) to A$4.17 (bull), the price of A$6.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Auckland International Airport Ltd reported revenue of 1.0B NZD in FY2026 versus 282M NZD in FY2022, a compound +37.7%/yr. Reported net income was 334M NZD in FY2026, compounding +14.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$11.4B (≈ $8.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 42.6 · P/S ratio 14.3 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1571 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 33.6% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −51%, AIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.29Fair Value A$3.26BullA$4.17
Price A$6.69 · Upside -51.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0123 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +21.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +19.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 5.4% / −1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 46%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.12 per share, median 0.37 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 571% above its own trend.
AI conclusion: Modest moat from location forms the main strength, while weak returns and high capex intensity limit durability amid persistently negative free cash flow.
Main risk: High capital spending on the terminal integration risks further pressuring returns and free cash flow if passenger volumes stay flat.
Auckland Airport is halfway through its multi-year terminal integration programme that will combine domestic and international operations under one roof and increase processing capacity. Passenger volumes have been largely flat while capital spending remains high. Will the long-term operational efficiencies and growth potential from this investment outweigh the near-term pressures on returns?
Compare Auckland International Airport Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)33.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)45.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)14.30× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG34.72× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Auckland International Airport Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIA.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.26 versus a price of A$6.69, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIA?
Our model-based fair value for Auckland International Airport Ltd is A$3.26 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.69.
What is the quality score of AIA?
Auckland International Airport Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.26 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.29, optimistic scenario A$4.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Auckland International Airport Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.26, about −51% upside versus a price of A$6.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.29, optimistic scenario A$4.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Auckland International Airport Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 995M NZD (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Auckland International Airport Ltd pay a dividend?
Auckland International Airport Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Auckland International Airport Ltd it is A$3.26 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of A$6.69. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Auckland International Airport Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, AIA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.69, fair value A$3.26, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.26). For Auckland International Airport Ltd the two are A$3.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Auckland International Airport Ltd worth?
The market values Auckland International Airport Ltd at about A$11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is A$6.69; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIA?
Our models span a range for Auckland International Airport Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.29, base A$3.26, optimistic A$4.17 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price A$6.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIA?
Auckland International Airport Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.6 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.26 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 46.0 (reported 42.6). Other multiples: PEG 34.7, P/B 1.3, P/S 14.3, EV/EBITDA 23.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AIA?
The PEG ratio of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 34.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Auckland International Airport Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIA from its 52-week high?
Auckland International Airport Ltd trades at A$6.69, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$7.62 and 2% above the low of A$6.57 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Auckland International Airport Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, GMR Airports Limited, Shanghai International Airport Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Auckland International Airport Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price A$6.69, calculated fair value A$3.26 (−51%), Quality Score 36/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIA calculated?
We run Auckland International Airport Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Auckland International Airport Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was A$6.69. Our model-based fair value is A$3.26, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Auckland International Airport Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$2.29 to A$4.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Auckland International Airport Ltd grew −3.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Auckland International Airport Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The market capitalisation of Auckland International Airport Ltd is A$11.4B (≈ $8.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 14.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Earnings per share at Auckland International Airport Ltd are A$0.1571 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The dividend yield of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 2.0% (payout 44.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 41.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The net margin of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 33.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
The operating margin of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Revenue at Auckland International Airport Ltd is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA)?
Earnings per share at Auckland International Airport Ltd are growing −31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) generate?
The free cash flow of Auckland International Airport Ltd is −452M NZD (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) carry?
The net debt of Auckland International Airport Ltd is 2.7B NZD (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026