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AIB Group (AIBGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AIB Group $19.81, price $24.90, upside -20.4%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN IE00BF0L3536

AG AIB Group logo Some data Oct 3, 2026

AIB Group

AIBGY · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $19.81 · Overvalued (−20.4%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +25.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 49.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓9.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$27.06 $3.18 Fair Value $19.81 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.18 – $27.06 · fair‑value band $15.45 – $31.24 · the $24.90 price screens above the $19.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to personal, business, and corporate customers in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, AIB Capital Markets, Climate & Infrastructure Capital, AIB UK, and Group segments.

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AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to personal, business, and corporate customers in the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, AIB Capital Markets, Climate & Infrastructure Capital, AIB UK, and Group segments. The company offers current and savings accounts, demand deposits, notice deposits, fixed term deposits, junior/student saver deposits, and currency deposits. It also provides personal, car, home improvement, student, SBCI and government, education, business sustainability, and farm and forestry development loans; merger and acquisition, management buyouts, syndicated debt facilities, infrastructure and project, mezzanine, asset, invoice, trade, revolving credit, corporate credit, prompt pay and insurance premium, structured and specialist, and ibanking financing services; mortgages; business and farmer credit line and overdrafts; and mortgages. In addition, the company offers credit and debit cards; investment funds; life, home, car, travel, and business succession insurance products; and pension products. Further, it provides foreign currency and interest rate risk management, cash management, equity investments, private banking services and advice, lending, treasury, trade facilities, asset finance, and invoice discounting services, as well as wealth management and capital markets services. The company was formerly known as Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. and changed its name to AIB Group plc in December 2017. AIB Group plc was founded in 1825 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

AIB Group (AIBGY) currently trades at $24.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.81, 20.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.87 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $24.90 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.51, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $15.45 (bear) to $31.24 (bull), the price of $24.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AIB Group reported revenue of €5.7B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +33.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $27.4B · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 4.15 · EPS (TTM) $2.17 · Dividend yield 9.3% · Net margin 36.1% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −20%, AIBGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.45 Fair Value $19.81 Bull $31.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.20 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $14.49 $18.61 $27.91 75
Gordon GGM $10.51 $21.86 $34.68 66
DDM Multi-Stage $10.51 $18.43 $22.94 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $10.51 $21.86 $34.68 66
DDM Multi-Stage $10.51 $18.43 $22.94 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.27 $28.36 $35.44 63
P/B Multiple $14.90 $19.87 $24.84 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.10 $9.51 $14.19 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.49 $18.61 $27.91 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.1%
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+48.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.1% vs 6.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−58% → 41%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−19.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%

AIBGY screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −3.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 49.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 58.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.91× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 5.90× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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AIB Group · Fair Value
$19.81 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AIB Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIBGY

Frequently asked questions

Is AIB Group (AIBGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.81 versus a price of $24.90, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIBGY?
Our model-based fair value for AIB Group is $19.81 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.90.
What is the quality score of AIBGY?
AIB Group has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.81 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.45, optimistic scenario $31.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AIB Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.81, about −20% upside versus a price of $24.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.45, optimistic scenario $31.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
AIB Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does AIB Group pay a dividend?
AIB Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.28% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into AIB Group (AIBGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AIB Group would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIBGY use?
Our models discount AIB Group at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AIB Group that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AIB Group (AIBGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AIB Group grew +44.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AIB Group (AIBGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AIB Group (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.15 %: that much free cash flow AIB Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AIB Group it is $19.81 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $24.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AIB Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AIBGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.90, fair value $19.81, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIBGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.81). For AIB Group the two are $5.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AIB Group worth?
The market values AIB Group at about $27.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $24.90; our models calculate a fair value of $19.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIBGY?
Our models span a range for AIB Group: cautious scenario $15.45, base $19.81, optimistic $31.24 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $24.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIBGY?
AIB Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for AIB Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 14.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIBGY from its 52-week high?
AIB Group trades at $24.90, about 8% below its 52-week high of $27.06 and 52% above the low of $16.39 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AIB Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AIB Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $24.90, calculated fair value $19.81 (−20%), Quality Score 69/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIBGY calculated?
We run AIB Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AIB Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $24.90. Our model-based fair value is $19.81, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AIB Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($15.45 to $31.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AIB Group (AIBGY) come from?
Earnings per share at AIB Group grew +6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AIB Group

How large is the market capitalisation of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The market capitalisation of AIB Group is $27.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AIB Group is 4.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Earnings per share at AIB Group are $2.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The dividend yield of AIB Group is 9.3% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The net margin of AIB Group is 36.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AIB Group is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AIB Group is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AIB Group (AIBGY)?
The operating margin of AIB Group is 58.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Revenue at AIB Group is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AIB Group (AIBGY)?
Earnings per share at AIB Group are growing +7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AIB Group (AIBGY) hold?
AIB Group holds more cash than debt, €27.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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