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NicOx S.A. (ALCOX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NicOx S.A. €0.05, price €0.34, upside -84.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · FR · ISIN FR0013018124

NS Thin data Sep 23, 2026

NicOx S.A.

ALCOX · PA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €0.0510 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€3.83 €0.1520 Fair Value €0.0510 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.1520 – €3.83 · fair‑value band €0.0340 – €0.0680 · the €0.3375 price screens above the €0.0510 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Nicox S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an ophthalmology company in France and internationally. The company develops solutions to maintain vision and improve eye health.

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Nicox S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an ophthalmology company in France and internationally. The company develops solutions to maintain vision and improve eye health. The company's lead product candidate is NCX 470, a novel nitric oxide (NO)-donating bimatoprost eye drop for lowering intraocular pressure in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension, which is in Phase 3 clinical trial. It also develops NCX 4251, a novel patented ophthalmic suspension of fluticasone propionate nanocrystals that is in Phase 2b clinical trial for the treatment of dry eye disease; and NCX 1728, a NO-donating phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor, which is in preclinical evaluation. In addition, the company offers VYZULTA, a latanoprostene bunod ophthalmic solution to treat patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; and ZERVIATE, a cetirizine ophthalmic solution for the treatment of ocular itching related associated with allergic conjunctivitis. Nicox S.A. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Biot, France.

Stock analysis

NicOx S.A. (ALCOX) currently trades at €0.3375, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.0510, implying the stock looks roughly 561.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: €0.0340 (bear) to €0.0680 (bull), the price of €0.3375 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

NicOx S.A. reported revenue of €16.8M in FY2025 versus €7.2M in FY2021, a compound +23.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€2.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €36.1M · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0300 · Net margin −14.4% · Return on equity −51.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −56.1% · Operating margin 77.3% · Revenue (TTM) €16.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −85%, ALCOX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.0340 Fair Value €0.0510 Bull €0.0680
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) €0.0300 €0.0400 €0.0600 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.0300 €0.0400 €0.0600 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+113.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−52.4% (2020) → −81.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALCOX screens 562% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 649 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 24% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 77% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 752% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.52× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.45× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 6.24× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $516.34 $567.97 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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NicOx S.A. · Fair Value
€0.0510 −562%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NicOx S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCOX

Frequently asked questions

Is NicOx S.A. (ALCOX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.0510 versus a price of €0.3375, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALCOX?
Our model-based fair value for NicOx S.A. is €0.0510 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.3375.
What is the quality score of ALCOX?
NicOx S.A. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.0510 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.0340, optimistic scenario €0.0680. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NicOx S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.0510, about −85% upside versus a price of €0.3375 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.0340, optimistic scenario €0.0680. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
NicOx S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €16.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NicOx S.A. it is €0.0510 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €0.3375. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NicOx S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALCOX trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.3375, fair value €0.0510, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALCOX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.3375); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.0510). For NicOx S.A. the two are €0.2865 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NicOx S.A. worth?
The market values NicOx S.A. at about €36.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €0.3375; our models calculate a fair value of €0.0510 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALCOX?
Our models span a range for NicOx S.A.: cautious scenario €0.0340, base €0.0510, optimistic €0.0680 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €0.3375). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALCOX?
The PEG ratio of NicOx S.A. is 6.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
Balance-sheet figures for NicOx S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −51.2%, debt of 2.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALCOX from its 52-week high?
NicOx S.A. trades at €0.3375, about 34% below its 52-week high of €0.5130 and 19% above the low of €0.2840 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.0510 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NicOx S.A.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NicOx S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €0.3375, calculated fair value €0.0510 (−85%), Quality Score 53/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALCOX calculated?
We run NicOx S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.0510, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NicOx S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €0.3375. Our model-based fair value is €0.0510, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NicOx S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.0680). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€0.0340 to €0.0680) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NicOx S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The market capitalisation of NicOx S.A. is €36.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NicOx S.A. is 2.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
Earnings per share at NicOx S.A. are €−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The net margin of NicOx S.A. is −14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NicOx S.A. is −51.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NicOx S.A. is −56.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
The operating margin of NicOx S.A. is 77.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NicOx S.A. (ALCOX)?
Revenue at NicOx S.A. is growing +752% versus a year earlier (3y avg +72.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NicOx S.A. (ALCOX) generate?
The free cash flow of NicOx S.A. is −€23.2M (fiscal year 2022). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NicOx S.A. (ALCOX) hold?
NicOx S.A. holds more cash than debt, €3.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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