Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V $0.89, price $1.05, upside -15.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1845 – $1.36 · fair‑value band $0.4760 – $1.40 · the $1.05 price screens above the $0.8925 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V., a consumer-packaged goods company, produces, markets, and distributes food products in Mexico, the United States, Central and South America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Sigma and Other segments.
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Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V., a consumer-packaged goods company, produces, markets, and distributes food products in Mexico, the United States, Central and South America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Sigma and Other segments. The company offers cooked meats comprising hams, sausages, mortadella, and bacon; fresh meat; dry meat consisting of cured meats and salami; dairy products, such as cheese, yogurt, cream, and butter; refrigerated pizzas, prepared meals and food, snacks, plant-based protein products, ready-to-drink coffee, fish, burgers, dry goods, and canned products; other frozen and refrigerated food; and alternative proteins. It sells its products under the Aoste, Bar S, Bernina, Better Balance, Braedt, Camelia, Campofrio, Caroli, Cesar Moroni, Checo, Chen, Chimex, Cochonou, Comnor, Del Prado, Don Diego, El Cazo, Fiorucci, Franja, Fud, Galicia, Grill House by Sigma, Iassa, Ibero, Juris, Justin Bridou, La Chona, La Villita, Laska, Lekkerland, Longmont, Los Altos, Marcassou, Monteverde, Mucho Gusto, Navidul, Nayar, Nobre, Noche Buena, Norteñita, Oscar Mayer, Otto Kunz, Revilla, San Antonio, San Rafael, Sigma Foodservice, Snack'In For You, Sosua, Stegeman, Superior, Supremo, Tangamanga, Tastech by Sigma, Vitta, Viva, Yoplait, Zar, and Zurqui brands. The company was formerly known as Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. in December 2025. Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) currently trades at $1.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8925, implying the stock looks roughly 17.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.38 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.82, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.4760 (bear) to $1.40 (bull), the price of $1.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 178B MXN in FY2025 versus 297B MXN in FY2021, a compound −12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 8.5B MXN in FY2025, compounding +20.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.9B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 42.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −15%, ALFFF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4760Fair Value $0.8925Bull $1.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in MXN, Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)57.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfa S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALFFF
Frequently asked questions
Is Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8925 versus a price of $1.05, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALFFF?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is $0.8925 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.05.
What is the quality score of ALFFF?
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8925 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4760, optimistic scenario $1.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8925, about −15% upside versus a price of $1.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4760, optimistic scenario $1.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 177B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfa S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALFFF use?
Our models discount Alfa S.A.B. de C.V at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfa S.A.B. de C.V that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V grew -6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.83 %: that much free cash flow Alfa S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa S.A.B. de C.V it is $0.8925 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfa S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALFFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.05, fair value $0.8925, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8925). For Alfa S.A.B. de C.V the two are $0.1575 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Alfa S.A.B. de C.V at about $5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.05; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8925 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFFF?
Our models span a range for Alfa S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario $0.4760, base $0.8925, optimistic $1.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFFF?
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8925 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.6%, debt of 3.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALFFF from its 52-week high?
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V trades at $1.05, about 5% below its 52-week high of $1.10 and 56% above the low of $0.6732 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8925 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.05, calculated fair value $0.8925 (−15%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFFF calculated?
We run Alfa S.A.B. de C.V through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8925, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfa S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.05. Our model-based fair value is $0.8925, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.4760 to $1.40). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is $5.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Earnings per share at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The net margin of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
The operating margin of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Revenue at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF)?
Earnings per share at Alfa S.A.B. de C.V are growing −66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alfa S.A.B. de C.V (ALFFF) carry?
The net debt of Alfa S.A.B. de C.V is 48.4B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026