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Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alerus Financial Corp $10.11, price $31.77, upside -68.2%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US01446U1034

AF Alerus Financial Corp logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Alerus Financial Corp

ALRS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $10.11 · Strongly overvalued (−68%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.64% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.12 $12.04 Fair Value $10.11 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.04 – $34.12 · fair‑value band $5.85 – $10.73 · the $31.77 price screens above the $10.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Alerus Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Alerus Financial, National Association that provides various financial services to businesses and consumers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, and Wealth.

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Alerus Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Alerus Financial, National Association that provides various financial services to businesses and consumers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, and Wealth. It offers demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, time and savings deposits, noninterest-bearing deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, and certificates of deposit; and treasury management products, including electronic receivables management, remote deposit capture, cash vault, merchant, and other cash management services. The company also provides commercial loans, business term loans, and lines of credit; commercial real estate, and commercial and industrial loans; consumer lending products, including residential first mortgage loans; and installment loans, and loans collateralized by cash and marketable securities. In addition, it offers retirement plan, and investment advisory services, employee stock ownership plan, investment fiduciary services, health savings accounts, flex spending accounts, COBRA recordkeeping, and other administration services, as well as individual retirement accounts; and financial planning, investment management, personal and corporate trust, estate administration, and custody services. Further, the company provides debit cards, personal and business loans, credit cards, online and mobile banking/wallet, private banking, deposit and payment solutions, mortgages, administration, and government health insurance program services. The company was formerly known as First National Bank North Dakota and changed its name to Alerus Financial Corporation in 2000. Alerus Financial Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Stock analysis

Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) currently trades at $31.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.11, implying the stock looks roughly 214.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $15.06 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $31.77 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.02, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $5.85 (bear) to $10.73 (bull), the price of $31.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alerus Financial Corp reported revenue of $328M in FY2025 versus $236M in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $816M · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 1.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.05 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −68%, ALRS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.85 Fair Value $10.11 Bull $10.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1536 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $15.53 $15.06 $12.10 76
Gordon GGM $6.44 $11.60 $15.97 68
DDM Multi-Stage $6.44 $10.60 $12.39 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.44 $11.60 $15.97 68
DDM Multi-Stage $6.44 $10.60 $12.39 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.77 $9.02 $11.28 63
P/B Multiple $8.85 $11.80 $14.75 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.24 $15.06 $22.48 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.53 $15.06 $12.10 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price.

ALRS screens 214% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 40% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.45× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 20.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)94 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)53 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alerus Financial Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALRS

Frequently asked questions

Is Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.11 versus a price of $31.77, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALRS?
Our model-based fair value for Alerus Financial Corp is $10.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.77.
What is the quality score of ALRS?
Alerus Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.85, optimistic scenario $10.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alerus Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.11, about −68% upside versus a price of $31.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.85, optimistic scenario $10.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Alerus Financial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $237M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Alerus Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Alerus Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alerus Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALRS use?
Our models discount Alerus Financial Corp at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alerus Financial Corp that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alerus Financial Corp grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alerus Financial Corp (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.21 %: that much free cash flow Alerus Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alerus Financial Corp it is $10.11 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $31.77. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alerus Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALRS trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.77, fair value $10.11, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALRS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.11). For Alerus Financial Corp the two are $21.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alerus Financial Corp worth?
The market values Alerus Financial Corp at about $816M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $31.77; our models calculate a fair value of $10.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALRS?
Our models span a range for Alerus Financial Corp: cautious scenario $5.85, base $10.11, optimistic $10.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $31.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALRS?
Alerus Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alerus Financial Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALRS from its 52-week high?
Alerus Financial Corp trades at $31.77, about 7% below its 52-week high of $34.12 and 55% above the low of $20.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alerus Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alerus Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $31.77, calculated fair value $10.11 (−68%), Quality Score 37/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALRS calculated?
We run Alerus Financial Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alerus Financial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.77. Our model-based fair value is $10.11, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alerus Financial Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($5.85 to $10.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) come from?
Earnings per share at Alerus Financial Corp grew −6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −9.7 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alerus Financial Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The market capitalisation of Alerus Financial Corp is $816M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alerus Financial Corp is 1.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Earnings per share at Alerus Financial Corp are $1.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The dividend yield of Alerus Financial Corp is 2.6% (payout 80.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The net margin of Alerus Financial Corp is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alerus Financial Corp is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alerus Financial Corp is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
The operating margin of Alerus Financial Corp is 40.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Revenue at Alerus Financial Corp is growing +18.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS)?
Earnings per share at Alerus Financial Corp are growing +71.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) carry?
The net debt of Alerus Financial Corp is $373M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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