Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $746M

Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.04 – $34.12 · fair‑value band $5.75 – $9.59 · the $33.23 price screens above the $7.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) currently trades at $33.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.67, implying the stock looks roughly 76.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alerus Financial Corporation generated revenue of $237M at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 18.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at $373M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $5.75 (bear case) to $9.59 (bull case); at $33.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -77%, ALRS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($15.06) versus Multiples ($9.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Alerus Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Alerus Financial, National Association that provides various financial services to businesses and consumers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, and Wealth.

Full company description

Alerus Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Alerus Financial, National Association that provides various financial services to businesses and consumers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, and Wealth. It offers demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, time and savings deposits, noninterest-bearing deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, and certificates of deposit; and treasury management products, including electronic receivables management, remote deposit capture, cash vault, merchant, and other cash management services. The company also provides commercial loans, business term loans, and lines of credit; commercial real estate, and commercial and industrial loans; consumer lending products, including residential first mortgage loans; and installment loans, and loans collateralized by cash and marketable securities. In addition, it offers retirement plan, and investment advisory services, employee stock ownership plan, investment fiduciary services, health savings accounts, flex spending accounts, COBRA recordkeeping, and other administration services, as well as individual retirement accounts; and financial planning, investment management, personal and corporate trust, estate administration, and custody services. Further, the company provides debit cards, personal and business loans, credit cards, online and mobile banking/wallet, private banking, deposit and payment solutions, mortgages, administration, and government health insurance program services. The company was formerly known as First National Bank North Dakota and changed its name to Alerus Financial Corporation in 2000. Alerus Financial Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alerus Financial Corporation reported revenue of $328M in FY2025 versus $236M in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.

ALRS screens 77% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.