AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AL Sydbank A/S DKK 245, price DKK 707, upside -65.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 128.22 – kr 714.00 · fair‑value band kr 183.89 – kr 296.86 · the kr 706.50 price screens above the kr 245.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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AL Sydbank A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to retail clients, corporates, and associations in Denmark and internationally. The company operates through Banking, Asset Management, AL Sydbank Markets, Treasury, and Other segments.
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AL Sydbank A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to retail clients, corporates, and associations in Denmark and internationally. The company operates through Banking, Asset Management, AL Sydbank Markets, Treasury, and Other segments. The company offers various deposits and loans and advances, advisory services, securities trading, asset management, distribution of mortgage credit products, investment products, pension, and insurance products. It also provides private banking solutions; services for investment funds, pooled pension plans, foundations, institutional clients, and wealthy customers; and economic research and equity research. Further, it provides retail banking services, such as insurance, housing, pension, and mortgage credit services to retail clients; mortgage bonds; and advice and quotes prices as regards bonds, shares, and foreign exchange, as well as undertakes market-making obligations for institutional clients, central banks, foreign and other clients, and banks. The company was formerly known as Sydbank A/S and changed its name to AL Sydbank A/S in December 2025. AL Sydbank A/S was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Aabenraa, Denmark.
Stock analysis
AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) currently trades at kr 706.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 245.18, implying the stock looks roughly 188.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 336.38 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 706.50 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at kr 289.86, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 183.89 (bear) to kr 296.86 (bull), the price of kr 706.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AL Sydbank A/S reported revenue of 7.5B DKK in FY2025 versus 4.8B DKK in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.9B DKK in FY2025, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 60.6B DKK (≈ $9.2B) · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 5.65 · EPS (TTM) kr 31.51 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 25.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −65%, ALSYDB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 183.89Fair Value kr 245.18Bull kr 296.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+62.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+58.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.59% vs 24%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.0% a year for the price and +12.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)40% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth65% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.25× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.97× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.4× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 245.18 versus a price of kr 706.50, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALSYDB?
Our model-based fair value for AL Sydbank A/S is kr 245.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 706.50.
What is the quality score of ALSYDB?
AL Sydbank A/S has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 245.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 183.89, optimistic scenario kr 296.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AL Sydbank A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 245.18, about −65% upside versus a price of kr 706.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 183.89, optimistic scenario kr 296.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
AL Sydbank A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.5B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AL Sydbank A/S pay a dividend?
AL Sydbank A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AL Sydbank A/S would have to grow free cash flow by -19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +60.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALSYDB use?
Our models discount AL Sydbank A/S at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AL Sydbank A/S that is -19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AL Sydbank A/S grew +60.4 % a year. The price currently implies -19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AL Sydbank A/S (-19.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.61 %: that much free cash flow AL Sydbank A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AL Sydbank A/S it is kr 245.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 706.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AL Sydbank A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALSYDB trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 706.50, fair value kr 245.18, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALSYDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 706.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 245.18). For AL Sydbank A/S the two are kr 461.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AL Sydbank A/S worth?
The market values AL Sydbank A/S at about 60.6B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 706.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 245.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALSYDB?
Our models span a range for AL Sydbank A/S: cautious scenario kr 183.89, base kr 245.18, optimistic kr 296.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 706.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALSYDB?
AL Sydbank A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 245.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for AL Sydbank A/S (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALSYDB from its 52-week high?
AL Sydbank A/S trades at kr 706.50, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 714.00 and 47% above the low of kr 479.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 245.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AL Sydbank A/S?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AL Sydbank A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 706.50, calculated fair value kr 245.18 (−65%), Quality Score 39/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALSYDB calculated?
We run AL Sydbank A/S through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 245.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AL Sydbank A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 706.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 245.18, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AL Sydbank A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 296.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) come from?
Earnings per share at AL Sydbank A/S grew +36.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +31.4 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AL Sydbank A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The market capitalisation of AL Sydbank A/S is 60.6B DKK (≈ $9.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AL Sydbank A/S is 5.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Earnings per share at AL Sydbank A/S are kr 31.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The dividend yield of AL Sydbank A/S is 3.5% (payout 79.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The net margin of AL Sydbank A/S is 25.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AL Sydbank A/S is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AL Sydbank A/S is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
The operating margin of AL Sydbank A/S is 39.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Revenue at AL Sydbank A/S is growing +65.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB)?
Earnings per share at AL Sydbank A/S are growing −26.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AL Sydbank A/S (ALSYDB) hold?
AL Sydbank A/S holds more cash than debt, 5.6B DKK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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