Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alupar Investimento S.A BRL 30.80, price BRL 11.75, upside +162.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$5.62 – R$13.91 · fair‑value band R$21.56 – R$40.04 · the R$11.75 price screens below the R$30.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments.
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Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments. The company holds a stake in concessions for 44 electric power transmission systems totaling 9,999 kilometers of transmission lines; and operates overhead lines and substations. It is also involved in the generation of renewable energy through hydroelectric plants, wind farms, and photovoltaic plants, which have an installed capacity of 798.5 MW. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Alupar Investimento S.A. is a subsidiary of Guarupart Participações Ltda.
Stock analysis
Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) currently trades at R$11.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$30.80, implying the stock looks roughly 61.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$44.62 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$11.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$9.14, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$21.56 (bear) to R$40.04 (bull), the price of R$11.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alupar Investimento S.A reported revenue of R$4.4B in FY2025 versus R$5.2B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$12.0B (≈ $2.3B) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) R$1.14 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 27.6% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 162%, ALUP3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$21.56Fair Value R$30.80Bull R$40.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.2889 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.1% vs 24.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 64%
2025 sits 267% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Alupar Investimento S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 196 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+67.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)58.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$30.80 versus a price of R$11.75, about +162% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALUP3?
Our model-based fair value for Alupar Investimento S.A is R$30.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$11.75.
What is the quality score of ALUP3?
Alupar Investimento S.A has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$30.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$21.56, optimistic scenario R$40.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alupar Investimento S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$30.80, about +162% upside versus a price of R$11.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$21.56, optimistic scenario R$40.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Alupar Investimento S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$4.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alupar Investimento S.A pay a dividend?
Alupar Investimento S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alupar Investimento S.A it is R$30.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$11.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alupar Investimento S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALUP3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$11.75, fair value R$30.80, a gap of about +162% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALUP3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$11.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$30.80). For Alupar Investimento S.A the two are R$19.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alupar Investimento S.A worth?
The market values Alupar Investimento S.A at about R$12.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$11.75; our models calculate a fair value of R$30.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALUP3?
Our models span a range for Alupar Investimento S.A: cautious scenario R$21.56, base R$30.80, optimistic R$40.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$11.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALUP3?
Alupar Investimento S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$30.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alupar Investimento S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 1.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALUP3 from its 52-week high?
Alupar Investimento S.A trades at R$11.75, about 16% below its 52-week high of R$13.91 and 10% above the low of R$10.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$30.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alupar Investimento S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alupar Investimento S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$11.75, calculated fair value R$30.80 (+162%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALUP3 calculated?
We run Alupar Investimento S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$30.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alupar Investimento S.A currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$11.75. Our model-based fair value is R$30.80, about +162% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alupar Investimento S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$21.56). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R$21.56 to R$40.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) come from?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento S.A grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alupar Investimento S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The market capitalisation of Alupar Investimento S.A is R$12.0B (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alupar Investimento S.A is 2.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento S.A are R$1.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The dividend yield of Alupar Investimento S.A is 6.5% (payout 66.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The net margin of Alupar Investimento S.A is 27.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alupar Investimento S.A is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alupar Investimento S.A is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
The operating margin of Alupar Investimento S.A is 58.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Revenue at Alupar Investimento S.A is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3)?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento S.A are growing −33.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) generate?
The free cash flow of Alupar Investimento S.A is R$2.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP3) carry?
The net debt of Alupar Investimento S.A is R$11.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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