Ambea AB (AMBEA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ambea AB SEK 192, price SEK 174, upside +10.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 29.68 – kr 175.80 · fair‑value band kr 173.82 – kr 249.11 · the kr 174.20 price screens below the kr 191.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ambea AB (publ) provides elderly care, disability care, and psychosocial support for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments.
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Ambea AB (publ) provides elderly care, disability care, and psychosocial support for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments. The company offers social care services; schools for children and youth with neuropsychiatric disorders under the Nytida brand; nursing homes and home care services for elderly people under the Vardaga brand; and social care for adults, children, and youth, as well as personal assistance under the Stendi brand. It also offers disability care, nursing home, home care, and rehabilitation services under the Altiden brand. In addition, the company offers staff solutions for social welfare services, including ambulatory care teams and student health service staffing under the Klara brand. Further, it develops and offers skills development training and coaching services in disability care, social services field, aged care, and schools under the Lära brand; and care youth and families as well as residential facilities personal assistance, daily activity units and rehabilitation for people with physical and intellectual disabilities, and psychosocial problems under the Validia brand. Ambea AB (publ) was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Ambea AB (AMBEA) currently trades at kr 174.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 191.62, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 318.30 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 174.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 43.34, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 173.82 (bear) to kr 249.11 (bull), the price of kr 174.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ambea AB reported revenue of 16.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 11.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 665M SEK in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 14.6B SEK (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) kr 8.56 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 10%, AMBEA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 173.82Fair Value kr 191.62Bull kr 249.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26% vs 15%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 56% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.4× · Pricier than median
P/B2.81× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambea AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMBEA
Frequently asked questions
Is Ambea AB (AMBEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 191.62 versus a price of kr 174.20, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMBEA?
Our model-based fair value for Ambea AB is kr 191.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 174.20.
What is the quality score of AMBEA?
Ambea AB has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 191.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 173.82, optimistic scenario kr 249.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambea AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 191.62, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 174.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 173.82, optimistic scenario kr 249.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Ambea AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.7B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ambea AB pay a dividend?
Ambea AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambea AB would have to grow free cash flow by -4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMBEA use?
Our models discount Ambea AB at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambea AB that is -4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambea AB (AMBEA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambea AB grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambea AB (AMBEA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambea AB (-4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.88 %: that much free cash flow Ambea AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambea AB it is kr 191.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 174.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambea AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AMBEA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 174.20, fair value kr 191.62, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMBEA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 174.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 191.62). For Ambea AB the two are kr 17.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambea AB worth?
The market values Ambea AB at about 14.6B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 174.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 191.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMBEA?
Our models span a range for Ambea AB: cautious scenario kr 173.82, base kr 191.62, optimistic kr 249.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 174.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMBEA?
Ambea AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 191.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambea AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMBEA from its 52-week high?
Ambea AB trades at kr 174.20, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 175.80 and 56% above the low of kr 111.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 191.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambea AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambea AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 174.20, calculated fair value kr 191.62 (+10%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMBEA calculated?
We run Ambea AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 191.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambea AB currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 174.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 191.62, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambea AB right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ambea AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The market capitalisation of Ambea AB is 14.6B SEK (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambea AB is 0.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are kr 8.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The dividend yield of Ambea AB is 1.5% (payout 31.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The net margin of Ambea AB is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambea AB is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambea AB is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The operating margin of Ambea AB is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Revenue at Ambea AB is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are growing +45.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ambea AB (AMBEA) carry?
The net debt of Ambea AB is 12.5B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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