Ambea AB (AMBEA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ambea AB stock SEK 211, price SEK 192, upside +10.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 29.68 – kr 191.80 · fair‑value band kr 191.37 – kr 274.28 · the kr 191.80 price screens below the kr 210.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Ambea AB (publ) provides elderly care, disability care, and psychosocial support for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. It operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments.
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The company offers social care services; schools for children and youth with neuropsychiatric disorders under the Nytida brand; nursing homes and home care services for elderly people under the Vardaga brand; and social care for adults, children, and youth, as well as personal assistance under the Stendi brand.
It also offers disability care, nursing home, home care, and rehabilitation services under the Altiden brand. In addition, the company offers staff solutions for social welfare services, including ambulatory care teams and student health service staffing under the Klara brand.
Further, it develops and offers skills development training and coaching services in disability care, social services field, aged care, and schools under the Lära brand; and care youth and families as well as residential facilities personal assistance, daily activity units and rehabilitation for people with physical and intellectual disabilities, and psychosocial problems under the Validia brand.
Ambea AB (publ) was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Ambea AB (AMBEA) currently trades at kr 191.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 210.98, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 406.99 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 191.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 33.47, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 191.37 (bear) to kr 274.28 (bull), the price of kr 191.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ambea AB reported revenue of 16.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 11.5B SEK in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 665M SEK in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 15.4B SEK (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) kr 10.50 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 10%, AMBEA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 191.37Fair Value kr 210.98Bullkr 274.28
Price kr 191.80 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 6.71 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.9% vs 14.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 56% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambea AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMBEA
Frequently asked questions
Is Ambea AB (AMBEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 210.98 versus a price of kr 191.80, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMBEA?
Our model-based fair value for Ambea AB is kr 210.98 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 191.80.
What is the quality score of AMBEA?
Ambea AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 210.98 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 191.37, optimistic scenario kr 274.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambea AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 210.98, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 191.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 191.37, optimistic scenario kr 274.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Ambea AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Ambea AB pay a dividend?
Ambea AB currently shows a dividend yield of 1.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ambea AB (AMBEA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ambea AB pays a dividend of kr 2.65 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was May 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 25.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.18 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambea AB would have to grow free cash flow by -3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMBEA use?
Our models discount Ambea AB at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambea AB that is -3.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambea AB (AMBEA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambea AB grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambea AB (AMBEA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambea AB (-3.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.19 %: that much free cash flow Ambea AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambea AB it is kr 210.98 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of kr 191.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ambea AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AMBEA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 191.80, fair value kr 210.98, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMBEA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 191.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 210.98). For Ambea AB the two are kr 19.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambea AB worth?
The market values Ambea AB at about 15.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is kr 191.80; our models calculate a fair value of kr 210.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMBEA?
Our models span a range for Ambea AB: cautious scenario kr 191.37, base kr 210.98, optimistic kr 274.28 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price kr 191.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMBEA?
Ambea AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 210.98 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.1. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambea AB (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMBEA from its 52-week high?
Ambea AB trades at kr 191.80, at its 52-week high of kr 191.80 and 72% above the low of kr 111.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 210.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambea AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambea AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price kr 191.80, calculated fair value kr 210.98 (+10%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMBEA calculated?
We run Ambea AB through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 210.98 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ambea AB currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 191.80. Our model-based fair value is kr 210.98, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambea AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ambea AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The market capitalisation of Ambea AB is 15.4B SEK (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambea AB is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are kr 10.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The dividend yield of Ambea AB is 1.4% (payout 25.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The net margin of Ambea AB is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambea AB is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambea AB is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
The operating margin of Ambea AB is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Revenue at Ambea AB is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambea AB (AMBEA)?
Earnings per share at Ambea AB are growing +27.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ambea AB (AMBEA) carry?
The net debt of Ambea AB is 12.5B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026