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Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 4, 2026: fair value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc $0.63, price $3.22, upside -80.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US03753U1060

AP Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc

APLS · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $0.6300 · Strongly overvalued (−80.5%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +32.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/9)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$93.31 $3.05 Fair Value $0.6300 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.05 – $93.31 · fair‑value band $0.4400 – $0.8200 · the $3.22 price screens above the $0.6300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutic compounds to treat diseases with high unmet needs.

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Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutic compounds to treat diseases with high unmet needs. It offers EMPAVELI for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria; and SYFOVRE for treating geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration and geographic atrophy (GA). The company also develops EMPAVELI to treat C3 glomerulopathy and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, and delayed graft function; and APL-3007, a small interfering RNA, or siRNA for the treatment of GA. In addition, it conducts preclinical studies for APL-9099, a treatment targeting the neonatal Fc receptor, or FcRn, which has the potential to be a first-in-class gene editing treatment for future target indications with one-time dosing; and developing other programs with its proprietary in-house capabilities and under its Beam collaboration. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) for development and commercialization of pegcetacoplan; and a collaboration with Beam Therapeutics, Inc. focused on the use of Beam's base editing technology to discover new treatments for complement-driven diseases. Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. As of May 14, 2026, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Biogen Inc.

Stock analysis

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) currently trades at $3.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6300, 80.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.03 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.22 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.1500, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.4400 (bear) to $0.8200 (bull), the price of $3.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $66.6M in FY2021, a compound +97.1%/yr. Reported net income was $22.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 38.3 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.07 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 46.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −43.6% · Operating margin 9.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 92% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −80%, APLS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1500 to $1.54). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.4400 Fair Value $0.6300 Bull $0.8200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8091 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.8900 $1.33 $2.72 74
EPV $0.3400 $0.3800 $0.4200 74
Growth DCF $0.8400 $1.54 $2.66 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.8900 $1.33 $2.72 74
Owner Earnings $0.6400 $1.34 $2.75 69
5Y Revenue Exit $0.5400 $0.8300 $1.44 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.5700 $0.8900 $1.50 71
5Y P/E Exit $0.4700 $0.8100 $1.26 67
10Y Revenue Exit $0.6400 $1.19 $1.50 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.6700 $1.24 $2.19 63
10Y P/E Exit $0.6000 $1.03 $1.67 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0900 $0.6500 $0.9100 61
Lynch FV $0.3300 $0.4800 $0.6200 59
PEG = 1.0 $0.3300 $0.4800 $0.6200 55
EPV $0.3400 $0.3800 $0.4200 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.2300 $0.3000 $0.3800 63
P/S Multiple $0.1700 $0.2300 $0.2900 58
P/B Multiple $0.1700 $0.2300 $0.2900 55
EV/EBIT $0.5000 $0.6400 $0.7800 66
EV/EBITDA $0.4300 $0.5500 $0.6700 67
EV/Revenue $0.3700 $0.5000 $0.6400 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1100 $0.1500 $0.2300 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.8400 $1.54 $2.66 73
Rev-Margin DCF $0.5900 $0.9400 $1.69 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.1800 $0.1800 $0.1900 68
ROIC Compounder $0.4400 $0.6300 $0.7600 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.4400 $0.6300 $0.8200 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 95
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+137.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−85.3% (2020) → 5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.6% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−7.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+11.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+8.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+7.7%

APLS screens overvalued: fair value 80% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 576 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −80.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 46.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 60.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.98× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)51 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc · Fair Value
$0.6300 −80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APLS

Frequently asked questions

Is Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6300 versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $3.22, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APLS?
Our model-based fair value for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is $0.6300 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 4, 2026): $3.22.
What is the quality score of APLS?
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6300 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4400, optimistic scenario $0.8200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6300, about −80% upside versus the last price from Sep 4, 2026 of $3.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4400, optimistic scenario $0.8200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APLS use?
Our models discount Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc that is -5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +32.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (-5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.09 %: that much free cash flow Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $0.6300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $3.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, APLS trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.22, fair value $0.6300, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6300). For Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $2.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $3.22; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APLS?
Our models span a range for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $0.4400, base $0.6300, optimistic $0.8200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $3.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APLS?
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6300 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 46.0%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APLS from its 52-week high?
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $3.22, about 92% below its 52-week high of $41.12 and 6% above the low of $3.05 (as of Sep 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $3.22, calculated fair value $0.6300 (−80%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APLS calculated?
We run Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 4, 2026 and stands at $3.22. Our model-based fair value is $0.6300, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.4400 to $0.8200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The market capitalisation of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Earnings per share at Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc are $1.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The net margin of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is 46.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is −43.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
The operating margin of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS)?
Revenue at Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +60.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +137%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) carry?
The net debt of Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is $18.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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