AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd $11.15, price $6.00, upside +85.8%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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AlphaPolis Co., Ltd. engages in site management and books publishing businesses in Japan. The company publishes light novels, cartoons, and paperbacks, as well as other books comprising general novels, manga, and other content; and translation publications of overseas books. It also operates Alphapolis, a platform for viewing content, such as novels.
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AlphaPolis Co., Ltd. engages in site management and books publishing businesses in Japan. The company publishes light novels, cartoons, and paperbacks, as well as other books comprising general novels, manga, and other content; and translation publications of overseas books. It also operates Alphapolis, a platform for viewing content, such as novels. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF) currently trades at $6.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.15, implying the stock looks roughly 46.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $16.95 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the $6.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.22, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.80 (bear) to $17.26 (bull), the price of $6.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
AlphaPolis Co., Ltd reported revenue of ¥13.6B in FY2025 versus ¥9.3B in FY2023, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.0B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $174M · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.3% · Operating margin 16.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 86%, APPLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.80Fair Value $11.15Bull $17.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5000 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+86% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
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Is AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.15 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $6.00, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of APPLF?
Our model-based fair value for AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is $11.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $6.00.
What is the quality score of APPLF?
AlphaPolis Co., Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.80, optimistic scenario $17.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AlphaPolis Co., Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.15, about +86% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $6.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.80, optimistic scenario $17.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
AlphaPolis Co., Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥16.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AlphaPolis Co., Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +21.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APPLF use?
Our models discount AlphaPolis Co., Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AlphaPolis Co., Ltd that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd grew +21.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.20 %: that much free cash flow AlphaPolis Co., Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AlphaPolis Co., Ltd it is $11.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $6.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AlphaPolis Co., Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, APPLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.00, fair value $11.15, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APPLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.15). For AlphaPolis Co., Ltd the two are $5.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AlphaPolis Co., Ltd worth?
The market values AlphaPolis Co., Ltd at about $174M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $6.00; our models calculate a fair value of $11.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APPLF?
Our models span a range for AlphaPolis Co., Ltd: cautious scenario $7.80, base $11.15, optimistic $17.26 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $6.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APPLF?
AlphaPolis Co., Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to AlphaPolis Co., Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AlphaPolis Co., Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $6.00, calculated fair value $11.15 (+86%), Quality Score 75/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APPLF calculated?
We run AlphaPolis Co., Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. AlphaPolis Co., Ltd currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $6.00. Our model-based fair value is $11.15, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AlphaPolis Co., Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($7.80 to $17.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The market capitalisation of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is $174M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Earnings per share at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The net margin of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is 14.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is 18.3% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
The operating margin of AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Revenue at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd (APPLF)?
Earnings per share at AlphaPolis Co., Ltd are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Sep 23, 2026