Arrive AI Inc (ARAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arrive AI Inc $0.03, price $0.22, upside -88.2%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range $0.1914 – $13.25 · fair‑value band $0.0170 – $0.0340 · the $0.2160 price screens above the $0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Arrive AI Inc., a technology company, designs and implements a commercially viable smart mailbox and platform system in the United States. It offers an ALM network of Arrive Points smart lockers and mini-cross-docks for secure and asynchronous exchange points, which connect drones, robots, delivery providers, retailers, and consumers.
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Arrive AI Inc., a technology company, designs and implements a commercially viable smart mailbox and platform system in the United States. It offers an ALM network of Arrive Points smart lockers and mini-cross-docks for secure and asynchronous exchange points, which connect drones, robots, delivery providers, retailers, and consumers. The company was formerly known as Arrive Technology Inc. and changed its name to Arrive AI Inc. in September 2024. Arrive AI Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Fishers, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Arrive AI Inc (ARAI) currently trades at $0.2160, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0255, 88.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0170 (bear) to $0.0340 (bull), the price of $0.2160 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Arrive AI Inc reported revenue of $113K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$12.8M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 97% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −88%, ARAI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0170Fair Value $0.0255Bull $0.0340
Price $0.2160 · Upside -88.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 160 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arrive AI Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARAI
Frequently asked questions
Is Arrive AI Inc (ARAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0255 versus a price of $0.2160, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARAI?
Our model-based fair value for Arrive AI Inc is $0.0255 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2160.
What is the quality score of ARAI?
Arrive AI Inc has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0255 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0170, optimistic scenario $0.0340. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrive AI Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0255, about −88% upside versus a price of $0.2160 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0170, optimistic scenario $0.0340. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Arrive AI Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $52.2K (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrive AI Inc it is $0.0255 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $0.2160. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrive AI Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ARAI trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.2160, fair value $0.0255, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2160); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0255). For Arrive AI Inc the two are $0.1905 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrive AI Inc worth?
The market values Arrive AI Inc at about $11.2M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $0.2160; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARAI?
Our models span a range for Arrive AI Inc: cautious scenario $0.0170, base $0.0255, optimistic $0.0340 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $0.2160). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrive AI Inc (as of Oct 4, 2026): debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARAI from its 52-week high?
Arrive AI Inc trades at $0.2160, about 97% below its 52-week high of $6.30 and 13% above the low of $0.1914 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrive AI Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Coherent Corp, Garmin Ltd, Chroma ATE Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrive AI Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $0.2160, calculated fair value $0.0255 (−88%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARAI calculated?
We run Arrive AI Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Arrive AI Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.2160. Our model-based fair value is $0.0255, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrive AI Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.0170 to $0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arrive AI Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
The market capitalisation of Arrive AI Inc is $11.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Earnings per share at Arrive AI Inc are $−0.6900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrive AI Inc is −672% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrive AI Inc is −317% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
The operating margin of Arrive AI Inc is −30,291% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrive AI Inc (ARAI)?
Revenue at Arrive AI Inc is growing −83.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arrive AI Inc (ARAI) generate?
The free cash flow of Arrive AI Inc is −$8.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arrive AI Inc (ARAI) carry?
The net debt of Arrive AI Inc is $4.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 4, 2026