Coherent Inc (COHR) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $56.4B · ISIN US19247G1076
What is Coherent Inc really worth?
Coherent Inc
COHR · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 3,510% above our fair value of $7.70.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.39 to $10.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.66 – $426.89 · fair‑value band $5.39 – $10.28 · the $277.83 price screens above the $7.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Coherent Inc (COHR) currently trades at $277.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.70, implying the stock looks roughly 3,510.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $27.83 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $277.83 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Coherent Inc generated revenue of $6.6B at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue grew 20.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.39 (bear case) to $10.28 (bull case); at $277.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 261% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −97%, COHR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.11 per share, which is 27.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($27.83) versus Dividend Discount ($0.9400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Coherent Corp. develops, manufactures, and markets engineered materials, optoelectronic components and devices, and laser systems for the use in the industrial, communications, electronics, and instrumentation markets worldwide. It operates through three segments: Networking, Materials, and Lasers.
Full company description
Coherent Corp. develops, manufactures, and markets engineered materials, optoelectronic components and devices, and laser systems for the use in the industrial, communications, electronics, and instrumentation markets worldwide. It operates through three segments: Networking, Materials, and Lasers. The Networking segment offers transceivers, systems, subsystems, modules, components, optics, and semiconductor devices for datacenter and communications applications. The Materials segment provides engineered materials, laser optics, thermoelectric components, and advanced ceramic and metal-matrix composite materials and products; and vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser, edge-emitting laser, pump lasers, high-power lasers for materials processing, and integrated circuit. The Laser segment offers excimer lasers, solid-state lasers, CO2 lasers, and laser systems for various industrial applications, including semiconductor capital equipment, display manufacturing, precision manufacturing, and scientific research; and laser systems and subsystems. It markets its products and services through direct sales force, representatives, and distributors. The company was formerly known as II-VI Incorporated and changed its name to Coherent Corp. in September 2022. Coherent Corp. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Saxonburg, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Coherent Inc reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was $49.4M in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
COHR screens 3,510% overvalued. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Will Datacenter Momentum Keep Powering Coherent's Growth?
- Coherent, Lumentum, and Other Hot AI Stocks Are Falling Today. They Shouldn’t Be.
Peer Group
Scientific & Technical Instruments · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS | $316.13 | $107.22 | −66% |
| Garmin Ltd GRMN | $309.98 | $139.44 | −55% |
| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | $633.56 | $488.95 | −23% |
| Chroma ATE Inc 2360 | 2,195 TWD | 322.57 TWD | −85% |
| Hexagon AB HEXAB | kr 99.00 | kr 74.09 | −25% |
| MKS Inc MKSI | $281.60 | $76.00 | −73% |
| AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 | ¥60.00 | ¥24.39 | −59% |
| Fortive Corporation FTV | $61.54 | $33.48 | −46% |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | $56.99 | $34.12 | −40% |
| Cognex Corporation CGNX | $61.72 | $19.25 | −69% |
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