Arad Ltd (ARD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Arad Ltd ILS 69.41, price ILS 47.87, upside +45.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 35.54 ILA – 58.21 ILA · fair‑value band 40.15 ILA – 90.23 ILA · the 47.87 ILA price screens below the 69.41 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Arad Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, plans, develops, manufactures, and sells water measurement and management products and solutions in Israel, Latin America, Asia, Europe, North America, and internationally.
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Arad Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, plans, develops, manufactures, and sells water measurement and management products and solutions in Israel, Latin America, Asia, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers water metering solutions, including smart measurement, smart data solutions, smart data analytics, and communication protocols/IoT, as well as automated meter reading/advanced metering infrastructure products, such as drive by/walk by reading system, fixed network, city mind meter data management system, and dialog 3G cellular. It also provides residential water meters; bulk water meters; agriculture solutions, comprising water meters, hydrometers, fertilizers meters, and automatic metering valves; and services and support, which include maintenance and technical support services and professional customer training services. In addition, the company offers ultrasonic measurement technology comprising sonata-ultrasonic residential water meter and octave-ultrasonic bulk water meter. It serves utility and water companies. The company was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Dalia, Israel.
Stock analysis
Arad Ltd (ARD) currently trades at 47.87 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 69.41 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 31.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 70.42 ILA per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the 47.87 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 15.81 ILA, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 40.15 ILA (bear) to 90.23 ILA (bull), the price of 47.87 ILA sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arad Ltd reported revenue of $421M in FY2025 versus $281M in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $29.2M in FY2025, compounding +9.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B ILA · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) 4.11 ILA · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 45%, ARD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 40.15 ILAFair Value 69.41 ILABull 90.23 ILA
Price 47.87 ILA · Upside +45.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.72 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.9% vs 5.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 149 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arad Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARD
Frequently asked questions
Is Arad Ltd (ARD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 69.41 ILA versus a price of 47.87 ILA, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARD?
Our model-based fair value for Arad Ltd is 69.41 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 47.87 ILA.
What is the quality score of ARD?
Arad Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 69.41 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 40.15 ILA, optimistic scenario 90.23 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arad Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 69.41 ILA, about +45% upside versus a price of 47.87 ILA (undervalued). Cautious scenario 40.15 ILA, optimistic scenario 90.23 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Arad Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $429M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Arad Ltd pay a dividend?
Arad Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arad Ltd (ARD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arad Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARD use?
Our models discount Arad Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arad Ltd that is +17.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arad Ltd (ARD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arad Ltd grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +17.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arad Ltd (ARD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arad Ltd (+17.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.68 %: that much free cash flow Arad Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arad Ltd it is 69.41 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 47.87 ILA. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arad Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ARD trades below its calculated fair value: price 47.87 ILA, fair value 69.41 ILA, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (47.87 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (69.41 ILA). For Arad Ltd the two are 21.54 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arad Ltd worth?
The market values Arad Ltd at about 1.2B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 47.87 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 69.41 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARD?
Our models span a range for Arad Ltd: cautious scenario 40.15 ILA, base 69.41 ILA, optimistic 90.23 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 47.87 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARD?
Arad Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 69.41 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arad Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 17.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARD from its 52-week high?
Arad Ltd trades at 47.87 ILA, about 18% below its 52-week high of 58.21 ILA and 17% above the low of 40.82 ILA (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 69.41 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arad Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Coherent Corp, Garmin Ltd, Chroma ATE Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arad Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 47.87 ILA, calculated fair value 69.41 ILA (+45%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARD calculated?
We run Arad Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 69.41 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Arad Ltd currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 47.87 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 69.41 ILA, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arad Ltd right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (40.15 ILA to 90.23 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Arad Ltd (ARD) come from?
Earnings per share at Arad Ltd grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin −2.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arad Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The market capitalisation of Arad Ltd is 1.2B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arad Ltd is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Earnings per share at Arad Ltd are 4.11 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The dividend yield of Arad Ltd is 1.1% (payout 12.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The net margin of Arad Ltd is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arad Ltd is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arad Ltd is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arad Ltd (ARD)?
The operating margin of Arad Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Revenue at Arad Ltd is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arad Ltd (ARD)?
Earnings per share at Arad Ltd are growing +20.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arad Ltd (ARD) carry?
The net debt of Arad Ltd is $78.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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