PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk IDR 293, price IDR 2,660, upside -89.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Arkora Hydro Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a hydropower company in Indonesia. The company engages in the construction and operation of hydropower plants. It is also involved in construction; real estate services; and capital participation in other entities. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO) currently trades at 2,660 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 293.09 IDR, 89.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,054 IDR per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 2,660 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 117.84 IDR, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 214.19 IDR (bear) to 366.36 IDR (bull), the price of 2,660 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk reported revenue of 343B IDR in FY2025 versus 198B IDR in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was 63.9B IDR in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.8T IDR (≈ $435M) · P/E ratio 120.5 · P/S ratio 22.4 · EPS (TTM) 22.08 IDR · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% · Operating margin 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −89%, ARKO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (117.84 IDR to 1,054 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 214.19 IDRFair Value 293.09 IDRBull 366.36 IDR
Price 2,660 IDR · Upside -89.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (18.63 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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’21
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 5%
2025 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)19.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)120.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B15.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)23.34× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)49· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)36· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 293.09 IDR versus a price of 2,660 IDR, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARKO?
Our model-based fair value for PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 293.09 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,660 IDR.
What is the quality score of ARKO?
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 293.09 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 214.19 IDR, optimistic scenario 366.36 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Arkora Hydro Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 293.09 IDR, about −89% upside versus a price of 2,660 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 214.19 IDR, optimistic scenario 366.36 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 334B IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Arkora Hydro Tbk it is 293.09 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 2,660 IDR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ARKO trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,660 IDR, fair value 293.09 IDR, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,660 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (293.09 IDR). For PT Arkora Hydro Tbk the two are 2,367 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk worth?
The market values PT Arkora Hydro Tbk at about 7.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 2,660 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 293.09 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARKO?
Our models span a range for PT Arkora Hydro Tbk: cautious scenario 214.19 IDR, base 293.09 IDR, optimistic 366.36 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 2,660 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARKO?
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 120.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 293.09 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.1, P/S 23.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARKO from its 52-week high?
PT Arkora Hydro Tbk trades at 2,660 IDR, about 78% below its 52-week high of 11,825 IDR and 104% above the low of 1,305 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 293.09 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Arkora Hydro Tbk?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Arkora Hydro Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 2,660 IDR, calculated fair value 293.09 IDR (−89%), Quality Score 39/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARKO calculated?
We run PT Arkora Hydro Tbk through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 293.09 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Arkora Hydro Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,660 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 293.09 IDR, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Arkora Hydro Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (366.36 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The market capitalisation of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 7.8T IDR (≈ $435M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 22.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Earnings per share at PT Arkora Hydro Tbk are 22.08 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 120.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The net margin of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 18.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
The operating margin of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Revenue at PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is growing −9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO)?
Earnings per share at PT Arkora Hydro Tbk are growing +22.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO) generate?
The free cash flow of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is −231B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PT Arkora Hydro Tbk (ARKO) carry?
The net debt of PT Arkora Hydro Tbk is 937B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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