Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd A$0.10, price A$0.17, upside -40.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1100 – A$0.6800 · fair‑value band A$0.0680 – A$0.1275 · the A$0.1700 price screens above the A$0.1020 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Arafura Rare Earths Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It focuses on the production of rare earth products, such as neodymium-praseodymium and mixed middle-heavy rare earths oxides.
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Arafura Rare Earths Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It focuses on the production of rare earth products, such as neodymium-praseodymium and mixed middle-heavy rare earths oxides. The company's flagship project is the Nolans project, a rare earths-phosphate-uranium-thorium deposit located in Northern Territory, Australia. The company was formerly known as Arafura Resources Limited and changed its name to Arafura Rare Earths Limited in October 2022. Arafura Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU) currently trades at A$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1020, 40.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0680 (bear) to A$0.1275 (bull), the price of A$0.1700 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd reported revenue of A$14.0M in FY2025 versus A$108K in FY2021, a compound +237.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$41.1M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.0B (≈ $717M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.2% · Revenue growth (YoY) +56.0% · Free cash flow −A$22.5M · Net cash A$222M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, ARU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0680Fair Value A$0.1020Bull A$0.1275
Price A$0.1700 · Upside -40.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+163.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+375.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+113.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +36.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,727.8% (2020) → −177.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 380 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−137.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth56.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.85× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 77
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1020 versus a price of A$0.1700, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARU?
Our model-based fair value for Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$0.1020 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1700.
What is the quality score of ARU?
Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1020 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1275. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1020, about −40% upside versus a price of A$0.1700 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0680, optimistic scenario A$0.1275. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd it is A$0.1020 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.1700. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ARU trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1700, fair value A$0.1020, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1020). For Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd the two are A$0.0680 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd worth?
The market values Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd at about A$1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1020 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARU?
Our models span a range for Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0680, base A$0.1020, optimistic A$0.1275 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARU from its 52-week high?
Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd trades at A$0.1700, about 65% below its 52-week high of A$0.4800 and 3% above the low of A$0.1650 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1020 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.1700, calculated fair value A$0.1020 (−40%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARU calculated?
We run Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1020, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.1700. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1020, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1275). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0680 to A$0.1275) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
The market capitalisation of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$1.0B (≈ $717M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
Earnings per share at Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is −17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU)?
Revenue at Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is growing +56.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +375%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU) generate?
The free cash flow of Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd is −A$22.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd (ARU) hold?
Arafura Rare EARTHS Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$222M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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