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Absecon Bancorp (ASCN) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $12.7M

AB Absecon Bancorp logo Absecon Bancorp ASCN · US
Price$121.00
Fair Value$189.71
Upside+56.8%
Quality57/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range $142.28 – $237.14 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +4.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 57% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($142.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$121.00 $46.13 Fair Value $189.71 Jul 2015 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $46.13 – $121.00 · fair‑value band $142.28 – $237.14 · the $121.00 price screens below the $189.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Absecon Bancorp (ASCN) currently trades at $121.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $189.71, implying the stock looks roughly 56.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $23.2M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 8.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $142.28 (bear case) to $237.14 (bull case); at $121.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 57%, ASCN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $128.22 $133.26 $136.91 76
Gordon GGM $26.40 $44.21 $57.39 70
P/E Multiple $142.28 $189.71 $237.14 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $26.40 $44.21 $57.39 70
DDM Multi-Stage $26.40 $41.94 $47.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $142.28 $189.71 $237.14 63
P/B Multiple $177.10 $236.14 $295.17 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $84.34 $113.01 $168.67 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income $128.22 $133.26 $136.91 76

Widest divergence: Multiples ($189.71) versus Dividend Discount ($41.94). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Free cash flow $1.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 8.5
EPS (TTM) $13.60
Net cash $23.2M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Absecon Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for The First National Bank of Absecon that provides various personal and business banking products and services primarily in Atlantic County, New Jersey. It offers checking, NOW, money market, and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; individual retirement accounts; and credit card merchant accounts.

Full company description

Absecon Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for The First National Bank of Absecon that provides various personal and business banking products and services primarily in Atlantic County, New Jersey. It offers checking, NOW, money market, and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; individual retirement accounts; and credit card merchant accounts. The company also provides consumer loans, including secured and unsecured personal loans, new and used vehicle loans, fixed rate home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit; and mortgages, such as fixed rate mortgages, construction mortgages, and mortgage programs for investment properties and second homes, as well as land purchase loans. In addition, it offers commercial mortgages, business lines of credit, accounts receivable/inventory financing, letters of credit, equipment financing, and demand loans. Further, the company provides credit card merchant processing services, wire transfers, direct deposits, night deposits, telephone and Internet banking services, and personal overdraft protection services. It primarily operates offices in Absecon, Galloway Township, and Northfield in Atlantic County, as well as provides services in portions of Burlington, Cape May, and Ocean Counties, New Jersey. Absecon Bancorp was founded in 1916 and is based in Absecon, New Jersey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Absecon Bancorp reported revenue of $10.0M in FY2025 versus $5.6M in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6M in FY2025, compounding +24.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$10.0M
Latest YoY
+15.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.6%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Revenue +15.8%/yr
FY21 $5.6M
FY22 $6.2M
FY23 $7.9M
FY24 $8.7M
FY25 $10.0M
Net income +24.5%/yr
FY21 $665K
FY22 $1.0M
FY23 $1.6M
FY24 $1.2M
FY25 $1.6M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Absecon Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASCN

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside +57% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.69× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 9.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 0 · sector 44
PAST 0 · sector 41
HEALTH 0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Absecon Bancorp (ASCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $189.71 versus a price of $121.00, about +57% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASCN?
Our model-based fair value for Absecon Bancorp is $189.71 (as of Jul 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $121.00.
What is the quality score of ASCN?
Absecon Bancorp has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of ASCN?
The net profit margin of Absecon Bancorp is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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