Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aster DM Healthcare Limited ₹98.10, price ₹760, upside -87.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ₹98.10 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −11.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
!Moderate moat49/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹111.73 – ₹869.70 · fair‑value band ₹49.80 – ₹122.62 · the ₹760.05 price screens above the ₹98.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Aster DM Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides healthcare services in India. It operates through Hospitals, Clinics, Wholesale Pharmacies, and Others segments. The company operates hospitals, clinic, and in-house pharmacies at the hospitals and clinics. It also offers healthcare consultancy and other services.
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Aster DM Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides healthcare services in India. It operates through Hospitals, Clinics, Wholesale Pharmacies, and Others segments. The company operates hospitals, clinic, and in-house pharmacies at the hospitals and clinics. It also offers healthcare consultancy and other services. In addition, the company operates retail pharmacies and optical outlets. Aster DM Healthcare Limited was founded in 1987 and is based in Bengaluru, India.
Stock analysis
Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) currently trades at ₹760.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹98.10, implying the stock looks roughly 674.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹207.16 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹760.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹35.22, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹49.80 (bear) to ₹122.62 (bull), the price of ₹760.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aster DM Healthcare Limited reported revenue of ₹46.4B in FY2026 versus ₹103B in FY2022, a compound −18.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.9B in FY2026, compounding −7.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹709B (≈ $7.4B) · P/E ratio 101.6 · P/S ratio 8.49 · EPS (TTM) ₹7.48 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −87%, ASTERDM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹9.01 to ₹218.08). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹49.80Fair Value ₹98.10Bull ₹122.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 14%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+35.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.9% a year for the price and +30.5% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)101.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B15.50× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)15.28× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF3.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA77.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)91· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)1· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹98.10 versus a price of ₹760.05, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASTERDM?
Our model-based fair value for Aster DM Healthcare Limited is ₹98.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹760.05.
What is the quality score of ASTERDM?
Aster DM Healthcare Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹98.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹49.80, optimistic scenario ₹122.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aster DM Healthcare Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹98.10, about −87% upside versus a price of ₹760.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹49.80, optimistic scenario ₹122.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Aster DM Healthcare Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹46.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aster DM Healthcare Limited pay a dividend?
Aster DM Healthcare Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aster DM Healthcare Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +64.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASTERDM use?
Our models discount Aster DM Healthcare Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aster DM Healthcare Limited that is +64.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aster DM Healthcare Limited grew -11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +64.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aster DM Healthcare Limited (+64.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.51 %: that much free cash flow Aster DM Healthcare Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aster DM Healthcare Limited it is ₹98.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹760.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aster DM Healthcare Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ASTERDM trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹760.05, fair value ₹98.10, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASTERDM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹760.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹98.10). For Aster DM Healthcare Limited the two are ₹661.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aster DM Healthcare Limited worth?
The market values Aster DM Healthcare Limited at about ₹709B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹760.05; our models calculate a fair value of ₹98.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASTERDM?
Our models span a range for Aster DM Healthcare Limited: cautious scenario ₹49.80, base ₹98.10, optimistic ₹122.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹760.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASTERDM?
Aster DM Healthcare Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 101.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹98.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.5, P/S 15.3, EV/EBITDA 77.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aster DM Healthcare Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASTERDM from its 52-week high?
Aster DM Healthcare Limited trades at ₹760.05, about 13% below its 52-week high of ₹869.70 and 42% above the low of ₹535.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹98.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aster DM Healthcare Limited?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aster DM Healthcare Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹760.05, calculated fair value ₹98.10 (−87%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASTERDM calculated?
We run Aster DM Healthcare Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹98.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aster DM Healthcare Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹760.05. Our model-based fair value is ₹98.10, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aster DM Healthcare Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹122.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹49.80 to ₹122.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) come from?
Earnings per share at Aster DM Healthcare Limited grew +34.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.6 %, EBIT margin +7.2 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +28.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aster DM Healthcare Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The market capitalisation of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is ₹709B (≈ $7.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 8.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Earnings per share at Aster DM Healthcare Limited are ₹7.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 101.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The dividend yield of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 0.1% (payout 7.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The net margin of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 8.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
The operating margin of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Revenue at Aster DM Healthcare Limited is growing +18.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM)?
Earnings per share at Aster DM Healthcare Limited are growing +71.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aster DM Healthcare Limited (ASTERDM) carry?
The net debt of Aster DM Healthcare Limited is ₹8.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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