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Autotrader Group (ATDRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Autotrader Group $8.12, price $5.96, upside +36.3%, quality 88 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Autotrader Group
ATDRF · USUndervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.
✓Fair value $8.12 · Undervalued (+36.3%)
✓Quality 88/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 47.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.9% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 91/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.63 – $12.26 · fair‑value band $5.68 – $13.83 · the $5.96 price screens below the $8.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Autotrader Group plc operates an automotive platform in the United Kingdom. It operates through Auto Trader and Autorama segments.
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Autotrader Group plc operates an automotive platform in the United Kingdom. It operates through Auto Trader and Autorama segments. The company provides vehicle advertisement on its websites for private sellers, as well as insurance and loan finance products to consumers; and display advertising on its websites for manufacturers and their advertising agencies. It also sells new vehicles and accessories; and facilitates the lease of new vehicles. The company offers its products to retailers, home traders, and logistics customers. The company was formerly known as Auto Trader Group plc and changed its name to Autotrader Group plc in January 2026. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Manchester, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Autotrader Group (ATDRF) currently trades at $5.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.12, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.69 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $5.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.37, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.68 (bear) to $13.83 (bull), the price of $5.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Autotrader Group reported revenue of £624M in FY2026 versus £433M in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was £294M in FY2026, compounding +4.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 6.10 · EPS (TTM) $0.4600 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 47.1% · Return on equity 60.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 52.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 36%, ATDRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.68
Fair Value $8.12
Bull $13.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1753 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.40
$8.86
$14.19
79
Growth DCF
$5.43
$8.75
$13.77
77
Owner Earnings
$5.30
$8.69
$13.92
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.40
$8.86
$14.19
79
Owner Earnings
$5.30
$8.69
$13.92
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.10
$4.68
$6.64
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.34
$9.03
$13.42
74
5Y P/E Exit
$6.45
$11.18
$16.31
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.82
$5.49
$7.70
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.31
$8.50
$12.94
67
10Y P/E Exit
$6.01
$9.99
$15.17
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.33
$12.29
$16.60
64
Lynch FV
$2.94
$4.20
$5.46
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.94
$4.20
$5.46
57
EPV
$4.79
$5.58
$6.27
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.38
$2.74
$4.15
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.38
$2.37
$2.89
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.07
$10.77
$13.46
63
P/S Multiple
$2.73
$3.64
$4.55
58
P/B Multiple
$1.78
$2.37
$2.97
55
EV/EBIT
$7.52
$10.11
$12.70
66
EV/EBITDA
$5.93
$7.99
$10.05
67
EV/Revenue
$1.94
$2.88
$3.81
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3400
$0.4500
$0.6800
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.43
$8.75
$13.77
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.10
$4.73
$6.70
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.15
$2.83
$5.59
72
ROIC Compounder
$5.07
$6.25
$7.50
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.65
$8.07
$10.49
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
88/100
Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Profitability
93
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.60% → 62%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.3% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2031 (sales)+4.3%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Autotrader Group (ATDRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.12 versus a price of $5.96, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ATDRF?
Our model-based fair value for Autotrader Group is $8.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.96.
What is the quality score of ATDRF?
Autotrader Group has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $13.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Autotrader Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.12, about +36% upside versus a price of $5.96 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.68, optimistic scenario $13.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Autotrader Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £624M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Autotrader Group pay a dividend?
Autotrader Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Autotrader Group would have to grow free cash flow by -0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATDRF use?
Our models discount Autotrader Group at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Autotrader Group that is -0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Autotrader Group (ATDRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Autotrader Group grew +18.9 % a year. The price currently implies -0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Autotrader Group (ATDRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Autotrader Group (-0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.98 %: that much free cash flow Autotrader Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Autotrader Group it is $8.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Autotrader Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ATDRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.96, fair value $8.12, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATDRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.12). For Autotrader Group the two are $2.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Autotrader Group worth?
The market values Autotrader Group at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.96; our models calculate a fair value of $8.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATDRF?
Our models span a range for Autotrader Group: cautious scenario $5.68, base $8.12, optimistic $13.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ATDRF from its 52-week high?
Autotrader Group trades at $5.96, about 47% below its 52-week high of $11.18 and 2% above the low of $5.87 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Autotrader Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Autotrader Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.96, calculated fair value $8.12 (+36%), Quality Score 88/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATDRF calculated?
We run Autotrader Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Autotrader Group currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $5.96. Our model-based fair value is $8.12, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Autotrader Group right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (88/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($5.68 to $13.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Autotrader Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The market capitalisation of Autotrader Group is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Autotrader Group is 13.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Autotrader Group is 6.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Earnings per share at Autotrader Group are $0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The dividend yield of Autotrader Group is 1.9% (payout 25.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The net margin of Autotrader Group is 47.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Autotrader Group is 60.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Autotrader Group is 52.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
The operating margin of Autotrader Group is 62.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Revenue at Autotrader Group is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Autotrader Group (ATDRF)?
Earnings per share at Autotrader Group are growing +5.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Autotrader Group (ATDRF) carry?
The net debt of Autotrader Group is £150M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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