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Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd $1.62, price $3.45, upside -53.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US02155X1063

AT Alterity Therapeutics Ltd logo Thin data Oct 2, 2026

Alterity Therapeutics Ltd

ATHE · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.62 · Strongly overvalued (−53.0%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +67.6 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/8)
!Narrow moat 4/100
!Insider activity 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$21.40 $1.05 Fair Value $1.62 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.05 – $21.40 · fair‑value band $1.07 – $2.02 · the $3.45 price screens above the $1.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Alterity Therapeutics Limited is engages in research and development of Parkinsonian and neurodegenerative disorders, including Multiple System Atrophy (MSA) and Parkinson's disease. The company's lead drug candidate is ATH434, a small molecule drug candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of Parkinson's disease.

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Alterity Therapeutics Limited is engages in research and development of Parkinsonian and neurodegenerative disorders, including Multiple System Atrophy (MSA) and Parkinson's disease. The company's lead drug candidate is ATH434, a small molecule drug candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. It is also developing ATH434-201, which is in Phase II clinical trial to treat multiple system atrophy early stage; and ATH434-202 that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat multiple system atrophy, as well as biomarkers of progression in multiple system atrophy. The company also operates drug discovery platform that generates patentable chemical compounds to treat the underlying pathology of neurological diseases. The company was formerly known as Prana Biotechnology Limited and changed its name to Alterity Therapeutics Limited in April 2019. Alterity Therapeutics Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE) currently trades at $3.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.62, 53.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.07 (bear) to $2.02 (bull), the price of $3.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alterity Therapeutics Ltd reported revenue of A$5.4M in FY2025 versus A$4.3M in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$12.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $93.2M · P/S ratio 14.0 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6000 · Net margin −220% · Return on equity −47.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −54.0% · Operating margin −373% · Revenue (TTM) A$6.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, ATHE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.07 Fair Value $1.62 Bull $2.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.8100 $1.09 $1.63 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.8100 $1.09 $1.63 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,530.3% (2020) → −268.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ATHE screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 629 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Above median
Fair Value upside −57.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −32.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 74.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 14.04× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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$1.62 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alterity Therapeutics Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATHE

Frequently asked questions

Is Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.62 versus a price of $3.45, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATHE?
Our model-based fair value for Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is $1.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.45.
What is the quality score of ATHE?
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.07, optimistic scenario $2.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alterity Therapeutics Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.62, about −53% upside versus a price of $3.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.07, optimistic scenario $2.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$6.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alterity Therapeutics Ltd it is $1.62 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $3.45. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alterity Therapeutics Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, ATHE trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.45, fair value $1.62, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATHE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.62). For Alterity Therapeutics Ltd the two are $1.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alterity Therapeutics Ltd worth?
The market values Alterity Therapeutics Ltd at about $93.2M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $3.45; our models calculate a fair value of $1.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATHE?
Our models span a range for Alterity Therapeutics Ltd: cautious scenario $1.07, base $1.62, optimistic $2.02 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $3.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −47.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATHE from its 52-week high?
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd trades at $3.45, about 41% below its 52-week high of $5.89 and 18% above the low of $2.92 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alterity Therapeutics Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alterity Therapeutics Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $3.45, calculated fair value $1.62 (−53%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATHE calculated?
We run Alterity Therapeutics Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alterity Therapeutics Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.45. Our model-based fair value is $1.62, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alterity Therapeutics Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.07 to $2.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The market capitalisation of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is $93.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is 14.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Earnings per share at Alterity Therapeutics Ltd are $−0.6000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The net margin of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is −220% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is −47.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is −54.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
The operating margin of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is −373% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE)?
Revenue at Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is growing +74.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE) generate?
The free cash flow of Alterity Therapeutics Ltd is −A$11.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alterity Therapeutics Ltd (ATHE) hold?
Alterity Therapeutics Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$33.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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