Ames National Corporation (ATLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ames National Corporation $20.13, price $31.09, upside -35.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.33 – $32.82 · fair‑value band $18.86 – $22.18 · the $31.09 price screens above the $20.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ames National Corporation operates as a multi-bank holding company that provides banking products and services primarily in Boone, Clarke, Hancock, Marshall, Polk, Story, Taylor, and Union Counties in central, north-central, and south-central Iowa.
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Ames National Corporation operates as a multi-bank holding company that provides banking products and services primarily in Boone, Clarke, Hancock, Marshall, Polk, Story, Taylor, and Union Counties in central, north-central, and south-central Iowa. It accepts various deposit products, including checking and savings accounts; and time deposits, such as money market accounts and certificates of deposit. The company also provides loans, such as short-term and medium-term commercial, multi-family and agricultural real estate, residential real estate loans, equipment, vehicle, and home improvement loans; consumer loans to finance consumer purchases, such as automobiles, trucks, recreational vehicles, household furnishings, boats, personal loans, and lines of credit; agricultural and business operating loans and lines of credit; and originates mortgage loans for sale into the secondary market. In addition, it offers cash management, merchant credit card processing, safe deposit box, wire transfer, direct deposit, and automated/video teller machine access services; and automatic drafts for various accounts, as well as wealth management services. Further, it provides farm management, investment, and custodial services for individuals, businesses, and non-profit organizations; and online, mobile, and private banking services. Ames National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Ames, Iowa.
Stock analysis
Ames National Corporation (ATLO) currently trades at $31.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.13, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.93 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $31.09 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.92, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.86 (bear) to $22.18 (bull), the price of $31.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ames National Corporation reported revenue of $98.3M in FY2025 versus $71.0M in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $19.0M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $277M · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $2.42 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 19.4% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −35%, ATLO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.86Fair Value $20.13Bull $22.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 24%
2025 sits 77% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Ames National Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.33× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.02× · Pricier than median
P/FCF13.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.3× · Pricier than median
PEG1.03× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ames National Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATLO
Frequently asked questions
Is Ames National Corporation (ATLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.13 versus a price of $31.09, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATLO?
Our model-based fair value for Ames National Corporation is $20.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.09.
What is the quality score of ATLO?
Ames National Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.86, optimistic scenario $22.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ames National Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.13, about −35% upside versus a price of $31.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.86, optimistic scenario $22.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Ames National Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $69.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Ames National Corporation pay a dividend?
Ames National Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ames National Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATLO use?
Our models discount Ames National Corporation at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ames National Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ames National Corporation (ATLO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ames National Corporation grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ames National Corporation (ATLO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ames National Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.46 %: that much free cash flow Ames National Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ames National Corporation it is $20.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $31.09. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ames National Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ATLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.09, fair value $20.13, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.13). For Ames National Corporation the two are $10.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ames National Corporation worth?
The market values Ames National Corporation at about $277M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $31.09; our models calculate a fair value of $20.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATLO?
Our models span a range for Ames National Corporation: cautious scenario $18.86, base $20.13, optimistic $22.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $31.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATLO?
Ames National Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.3, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ATLO?
The PEG ratio of Ames National Corporation is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ames National Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATLO from its 52-week high?
Ames National Corporation trades at $31.09, about 5% below its 52-week high of $32.82 and 63% above the low of $19.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ames National Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ames National Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $31.09, calculated fair value $20.13 (−35%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATLO calculated?
We run Ames National Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Ames National Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $31.09. Our model-based fair value is $20.13, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ames National Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Ames National Corporation (ATLO) come from?
Earnings per share at Ames National Corporation grew −1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ames National Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The market capitalisation of Ames National Corporation is $277M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ames National Corporation is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Earnings per share at Ames National Corporation are $2.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The dividend yield of Ames National Corporation is 2.1% (payout 26.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The net margin of Ames National Corporation is 19.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ames National Corporation is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ames National Corporation is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
The operating margin of Ames National Corporation is 43.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Revenue at Ames National Corporation is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ames National Corporation (ATLO)?
Earnings per share at Ames National Corporation are growing +74.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ames National Corporation (ATLO) carry?
The net debt of Ames National Corporation is $39.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026