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Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd A$0.05, price A$0.12, upside -55.7%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · AU · ISIN AU0000023822

AT Amplia Therapeutics Ltd logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Amplia Therapeutics Ltd

ATX · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0510 · Strongly overvalued (−55.7%)
!Quality 23/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +156.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -160.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3550 A$0.0490 Fair Value A$0.0510 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0490 – A$0.3550 · fair‑value band A$0.0340 – A$0.0680 · the A$0.1150 price screens above the A$0.0510 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Amplia Therapeutics Limited, a clinical-stage drug development company, engages in the development of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) inhibitors for cancer and fibrosis in Australia. Its product pipeline comprises Narmafotinib (AMP945), an inhibitor of FAK, which is in phase 2b clinical trial for pancreatic cancer; and treatment of ovarian cancer.

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Amplia Therapeutics Limited, a clinical-stage drug development company, engages in the development of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) inhibitors for cancer and fibrosis in Australia. Its product pipeline comprises Narmafotinib (AMP945), an inhibitor of FAK, which is in phase 2b clinical trial for pancreatic cancer; and treatment of ovarian cancer. It also develops AMP886 for application in oncology and chronic fibrosis indications. The company was formerly known as Innate Immunotherapeutics Limited and changed its name to Amplia Therapeutics Limited in September 2018. Amplia Therapeutics Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX) currently trades at A$0.1150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0510, implying the stock looks roughly 125.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0340 (bear) to A$0.0680 (bull), the price of A$0.1150 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Amplia Therapeutics Ltd reported revenue of A$3.8M in FY2025 versus A$1.5M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.7M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$74.4M (≈ $52.3M) · P/S ratio 15.5 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Net margin −161% · Return on equity −25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.0% · Operating margin −186% · Revenue (TTM) A$4.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −56%, ATX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0340 Fair Value A$0.0510 Bull A$0.0680
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+156.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +62.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6,600.4% (2020) → −172.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ATX screens 125% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 639 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −55.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −16.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −160.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −185.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9.1% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.32× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 10.91× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $526.19 $578.81 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $788.04 $1,275 +62%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$176.95 A$194.65 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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A$0.0510 −125%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amplia Therapeutics Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATX

Frequently asked questions

Is Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0510 versus a price of A$0.1150, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATX?
Our model-based fair value for Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is A$0.0510 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1150.
What is the quality score of ATX?
Amplia Therapeutics Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0510 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amplia Therapeutics Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0510, about −56% upside versus a price of A$0.1150 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Amplia Therapeutics Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$4.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amplia Therapeutics Ltd it is A$0.0510 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.1150. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Amplia Therapeutics Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ATX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1150, fair value A$0.0510, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0510). For Amplia Therapeutics Ltd the two are A$0.0640 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amplia Therapeutics Ltd worth?
The market values Amplia Therapeutics Ltd at about A$74.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1150; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0510 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATX?
Our models span a range for Amplia Therapeutics Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0340, base A$0.0510, optimistic A$0.0680 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.1150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −25.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATX from its 52-week high?
Amplia Therapeutics Ltd trades at A$0.1150, about 57% below its 52-week high of A$0.2650 and 10% above the low of A$0.1050 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0510 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Amplia Therapeutics Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amplia Therapeutics Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.1150, calculated fair value A$0.0510 (−56%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATX calculated?
We run Amplia Therapeutics Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0510, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Amplia Therapeutics Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$0.1150. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0510, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amplia Therapeutics Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0680). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0340 to A$0.0680) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The market capitalisation of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is A$74.4M (≈ $52.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is 15.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Earnings per share at Amplia Therapeutics Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The net margin of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is −161% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is −25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is −29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
The operating margin of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is −186% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX)?
Revenue at Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is growing −9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX) generate?
The free cash flow of Amplia Therapeutics Ltd is −A$8.8M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ATX) hold?
Amplia Therapeutics Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$27.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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