Amplia Therapeutics Limited (ATX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · AU · Market cap A$74.4M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 111% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (23/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1870). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.1870 to A$0.3995) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0490 – A$0.3550 · fair‑value band A$0.1870 – A$0.3995 · the A$0.1450 price screens below the A$0.3060 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Amplia Therapeutics Limited (ATX) currently trades at A$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3060, implying the stock looks roughly 111.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$4.8M. Revenue declined 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -25.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$27.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1870 (bear case) to A$0.3995 (bull case); at A$0.1450, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 159% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 111%, ATX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.3500) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0500). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Amplia Therapeutics Limited, a clinical-stage drug development company, engages in the development of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) inhibitors for cancer and fibrosis in Australia. Its product pipeline comprises Narmafotinib (AMP945), an inhibitor of FAK, which is in phase 2b clinical trial for pancreatic cancer; and treatment of ovarian cancer.
Full company description
Amplia Therapeutics Limited, a clinical-stage drug development company, engages in the development of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) inhibitors for cancer and fibrosis in Australia. Its product pipeline comprises Narmafotinib (AMP945), an inhibitor of FAK, which is in phase 2b clinical trial for pancreatic cancer; and treatment of ovarian cancer. It also develops AMP886 for application in oncology and chronic fibrosis indications. The company was formerly known as Innate Immunotherapeutics Limited and changed its name to Amplia Therapeutics Limited in September 2018. Amplia Therapeutics Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Amplia Therapeutics Limited reported revenue of A$3.8M in FY2025 versus A$1.5M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.7M in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Biotechnology · 606 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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