Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alara Resources Ltd A$0.06, price A$0.07, upside -20.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0140 – A$0.0940 · fair‑value band A$0.0343 – A$0.0757 · the A$0.0710 price screens above the A$0.0563 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Alara Resources Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral exploration licenses in Australia and Oman. It explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. Alara Resources Limited was formerly known as Alara Uranium Ltd and changed its name to Alara Resources Limited in September 2008.
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Alara Resources Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral exploration licenses in Australia and Oman. It explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. Alara Resources Limited was formerly known as Alara Uranium Ltd and changed its name to Alara Resources Limited in September 2008. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in North Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) currently trades at A$0.0710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0563, implying the stock looks roughly 26.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.2500 per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the A$0.0710 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0343 (bear) to A$0.0757 (bull), the price of A$0.0710 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alara Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$55.1M in FY2025 versus A$11.8K in FY2021, a compound +727.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$10.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$51.0M (≈ $35.8M) · P/S ratio 0.32 · Net margin −18.4% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.8% · Operating margin 24.0% · Revenue (TTM) A$92.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +194%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 145% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −21%, AUQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0343Fair Value A$0.0563Bull A$0.0757
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+909.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,602.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+143.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +99.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−106.1% (2020) → −21.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth194% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity7.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0563 versus a price of A$0.0710, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AUQ?
Our model-based fair value for Alara Resources Ltd is A$0.0563 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0710.
What is the quality score of AUQ?
Alara Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0563 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0343, optimistic scenario A$0.0757. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alara Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0563, about −21% upside versus a price of A$0.0710 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0343, optimistic scenario A$0.0757. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
Alara Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$92.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alara Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +143.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AUQ use?
Our models discount Alara Resources Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alara Resources Ltd that is +1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alara Resources Ltd grew +143.6 % a year. The price currently implies +1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alara Resources Ltd (+1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.76 %: that much free cash flow Alara Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alara Resources Ltd it is A$0.0563 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0710. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alara Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AUQ trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0710, fair value A$0.0563, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0710); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0563). For Alara Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0147 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alara Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Alara Resources Ltd at about A$51.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0710; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0563 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUQ?
Our models span a range for Alara Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0343, base A$0.0563, optimistic A$0.0757 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0710). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alara Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 7.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUQ from its 52-week high?
Alara Resources Ltd trades at A$0.0710, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$0.0770 and 145% above the low of A$0.0290 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0563 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alara Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alara Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0710, calculated fair value A$0.0563 (−21%), Quality Score 47/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUQ calculated?
We run Alara Resources Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0563, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alara Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0710. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0563, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alara Resources Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0343 to A$0.0757) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Alara Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The market capitalisation of Alara Resources Ltd is A$51.0M (≈ $35.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alara Resources Ltd is 0.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The net margin of Alara Resources Ltd is −18.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alara Resources Ltd is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alara Resources Ltd is −4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
The operating margin of Alara Resources Ltd is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ)?
Revenue at Alara Resources Ltd is growing +194% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,603%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Alara Resources Ltd (AUQ) carry?
The net debt of Alara Resources Ltd is A$89.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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