Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V MXN 78.60, price MXN 100, upside -21.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Grupo Bafar, S.A.B. de C.V. produces and sells food products in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Consumer Products, Retail, International, New Fiber, Vector, Insurance, B Insurance, and Flycapital divisions.
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Grupo Bafar, S.A.B. de C.V. produces and sells food products in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Consumer Products, Retail, International, New Fiber, Vector, Insurance, B Insurance, and Flycapital divisions. The company offers packaged meat, chicken, turkey, nuggets, tenders, and pork products; beef, salchichon, and pork and cheese; sausages, including hams and bacon under the Parma, Sabori, Country, Griller's, Country Dishes, Montebello, Bafar, Burr, Ponderosa, Perry, and Three Castles brands. It also operates BIF, Carnemart, and La Pastora stores. In addition, the company acquires, develops, and leases real estate properties. Further, it offers microcredit and business loans for commercial, agricultural, and livestock sectors. Additionally, the company offers insurance services and investments for small and medium-sized companies. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Chihuahua, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) currently trades at 100.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 78.60 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 27.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 85.40 MXN per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the 100.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 16.57 MXN, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 31.03 MXN (bear) to 112.36 MXN (bull), the price of 100.00 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 24.5B MXN in FY2022 versus 13.9B MXN in FY2018, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B MXN in FY2022, compounding +37.1%/yr from FY2018.
Key figures
Market cap 36.6B MXN (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 23.8 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) 4.20 MXN · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% · Operating margin 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −21%, BAFARB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 31.03 MXNFair Value 78.60 MXNBull 112.36 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
2021 sits 77% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.5% a year for the price.
Compare Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAFARB
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 78.60 MXN versus a price of 100.00 MXN, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAFARB?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 78.60 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 100.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of BAFARB?
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 78.60 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.03 MXN, optimistic scenario 112.36 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 78.60 MXN, about −21% upside versus a price of 100.00 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 31.03 MXN, optimistic scenario 112.36 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.6B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +38.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAFARB use?
Our models discount Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V that is +38.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V grew +14.0 % a year. The price currently implies +38.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (+38.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.54 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V it is 78.60 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 100.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BAFARB trades above its calculated fair value: price 100.00 MXN, fair value 78.60 MXN, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAFARB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (100.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (78.60 MXN). For Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V the two are 21.40 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V at about 36.6B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 100.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 78.60 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAFARB?
Our models span a range for Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 31.03 MXN, base 78.60 MXN, optimistic 112.36 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 100.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAFARB?
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 78.60 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.8, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 31.6%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAFARB from its 52-week high?
Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V trades at 100.00 MXN, about 26% below its 52-week high of 136.00 MXN and 2% above the low of 97.90 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 78.60 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 100.00 MXN, calculated fair value 78.60 MXN (−21%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAFARB calculated?
We run Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 78.60 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 100.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 78.60 MXN, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The model range is unusually wide (31.03 MXN to 112.36 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 36.6B MXN (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 1.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V are 4.20 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The net margin of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 5.4% (fiscal year 2022). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 7.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
The operating margin of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Revenue at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V are growing +65.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V (BAFARB) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V is 9.7B MXN (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 21.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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