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Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bayfirst Financial Corp $7.31, price $7.12, upside +2.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US07279B1044

BF Bayfirst Financial Corp logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Bayfirst Financial Corp

BAFN · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $7.31 · Fairly valued (+3%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -89.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $3.35 to $12.28
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$30.05 $4.55 Fair Value $7.31 Dec 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.55 – $30.05 · fair‑value band $3.35 – $12.28 · the $7.12 price screens below the $7.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for BayFirst National Bank that provides community banking services for small and medium sized businesses and individuals.

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BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for BayFirst National Bank that provides community banking services for small and medium sized businesses and individuals. The company offers checking, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, and money market deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts; and safety deposit boxes. It also provides commercial real estate mortgages; construction and development, working capital, and business loans; auto, boat, and recreational vehicle loans; and residential mortgages, personal lines of credit, and home equity lines of credit. In addition, the company offers internet, mobile and online banking, lock box services, remote capture and deposit, treasury management, wire transfers, cash management, merchant processing, remote deposit capture, night depository, online bill payment, courier, retail investment, ACH originations, and other services. It operates full-service banking centers in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, Florida. The company was formerly known as First Home Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to BayFirst Financial Corp. in May 2021. BayFirst Financial Corp. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.

Stock analysis

Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) currently trades at $7.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.31, implying the stock looks roughly 2.6% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $14.29 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the $7.12 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.28, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.35 (bear) to $12.28 (bull), the price of $7.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Bayfirst Financial Corp reported revenue of $104M in FY2025 versus $63.3M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$22.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $29.5M · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $−5.54 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin −22.0% · Return on equity −29.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin −97.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 3%, BAFN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.35 Fair Value $7.31 Bull $12.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $3.07 $6.11 $9.25 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.07 $5.28 $6.45 67
NCAV (Graham) $10.66 $14.29 $21.32 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.07 $6.11 $9.25 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.07 $5.28 $6.45 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.66 $14.29 $21.32 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.2% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.8% (2020) → −29.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −90% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −97% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −53% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.94× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)37 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.48 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.20 HK$62.32 +22%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.72 €4.04 −40%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.56 $6.79 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹728.90 ₹406.44 −44%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $224.03 $159.52 −29%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayfirst Financial Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAFN

Frequently asked questions

Is Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.31 versus a price of $7.12, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BAFN?
Our model-based fair value for Bayfirst Financial Corp is $7.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.12.
What is the quality score of BAFN?
Bayfirst Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.35, optimistic scenario $12.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayfirst Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.31, about +3% upside versus a price of $7.12 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.35, optimistic scenario $12.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Bayfirst Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Bayfirst Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayfirst Financial Corp it is $7.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.12. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayfirst Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BAFN trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.12, fair value $7.31, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAFN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.31). For Bayfirst Financial Corp the two are $0.1900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayfirst Financial Corp worth?
The market values Bayfirst Financial Corp at about $29.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.12; our models calculate a fair value of $7.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAFN?
Our models span a range for Bayfirst Financial Corp: cautious scenario $3.35, base $7.31, optimistic $12.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayfirst Financial Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −29.5%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAFN from its 52-week high?
Bayfirst Financial Corp trades at $7.12, about 32% below its 52-week high of $10.46 and 56% above the low of $4.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayfirst Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayfirst Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.12, calculated fair value $7.31 (+3%), Quality Score 49/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAFN calculated?
We run Bayfirst Financial Corp through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayfirst Financial Corp currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $7.12. Our model-based fair value is $7.31, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayfirst Financial Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($3.35 to $12.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) come from?
Earnings per share at Bayfirst Financial Corp grew +18.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +34.0 %, EBIT margin −13.4 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Bayfirst Financial Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The market capitalisation of Bayfirst Financial Corp is $29.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayfirst Financial Corp is 0.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Earnings per share at Bayfirst Financial Corp are $−5.54. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The dividend yield of Bayfirst Financial Corp is 7.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The net margin of Bayfirst Financial Corp is −22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayfirst Financial Corp is −29.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayfirst Financial Corp is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
The operating margin of Bayfirst Financial Corp is −97.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Revenue at Bayfirst Financial Corp is growing −52.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)?
Earnings per share at Bayfirst Financial Corp are growing +609% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) generate?
The free cash flow of Bayfirst Financial Corp is $285M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) hold?
Bayfirst Financial Corp holds more cash than debt, $186M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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