BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $20.5M

Below-average quality, screening 20% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide ($3.42 to $13.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.55 – $30.05 · fair‑value band $3.42 – $13.16 · the $6.34 price screens below the $7.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) currently trades at $6.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.62, implying the stock looks roughly 20.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, BayFirst Financial Corp generated revenue of $31.5M at a net margin of -89.8%. Revenue declined 52.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -29.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $186M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.42 (bear case) to $13.16 (bull case); at $6.34, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 20%, BAFN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($14.29) versus Dividend Discount ($3.86). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for BayFirst National Bank that provides community banking services for small and medium sized businesses and individuals.

Full company description

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for BayFirst National Bank that provides community banking services for small and medium sized businesses and individuals. The company offers checking, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, and money market deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts; and safety deposit boxes. It also provides commercial real estate mortgages; construction and development, working capital, and business loans; auto, boat, and recreational vehicle loans; and residential mortgages, personal lines of credit, and home equity lines of credit. In addition, the company offers internet, mobile and online banking, lock box services, remote capture and deposit, treasury management, wire transfers, cash management, merchant processing, remote deposit capture, night depository, online bill payment, courier, retail investment, ACH originations, and other services. It operates full-service banking centers in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, Florida. The company was formerly known as First Home Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to BayFirst Financial Corp. in May 2021. BayFirst Financial Corp. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BayFirst Financial Corp reported revenue of $104M in FY2025 versus $63.3M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$22.9M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.