Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bank of Ayudhya PCL THB 48.84, price THB 39.25, upside +24.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 19.68 THB – 46.75 THB · fair‑value band 45.96 THB – 53.75 THB · the 39.25 THB price screens below the 48.84 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, corporates, small and medium-sized businesses, and financial institutions. The company operates through Retail, Commercial, and Others segments.
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Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, corporates, small and medium-sized businesses, and financial institutions. The company operates through Retail, Commercial, and Others segments. The Retail segment offers a range of banking and related financial services, such as current and savings accounts, fixed deposits, bills of exchange, housing loans, credit cards, personal loans and sale finance loans, hire-purchase and leasing, wealth management, and bancassurance products. The Commercial segment provides financial services and products comprising a range of credit facilities, which include short-term working capital, cash management, trade finance, transactional banking, advisory services, and treasury and money markets products. It also offers refinancing, hire purchase, and leasing services; venture capital services; car rental and personnel services; collection services; mutual funds and private fund management services; factoring and information technology services; and microfinance, real estate lease, asset management, and securities services, as well as operates as a life assurance and general insurance broker. In addition, the company develops, manages, and sells non-performing assets and other assets transferred from financial institutions. Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand. Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of MUFG Bank, Ltd.
Stock analysis
Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) currently trades at 39.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 48.84 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 19.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 56.09 THB per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the 39.25 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 12.86 THB, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 45.96 THB (bear) to 53.75 THB (bull), the price of 39.25 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bank of Ayudhya PCL reported revenue of 186B THB in FY2025 versus 125B THB in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was 31.7B THB in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 333B THB (≈ $10.0B) · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) 4.46 THB · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 17.1% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 24%, BAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 45.96 THBFair Value 48.84 THBBull 53.75 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.31 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.1% a year for the price and −4.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+24% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)27% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)38% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.79× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank of Ayudhya PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 48.84 THB versus a price of 39.25 THB, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BAY?
Our model-based fair value for Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 48.84 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 39.25 THB.
What is the quality score of BAY?
Bank of Ayudhya PCL has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 48.84 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 45.96 THB, optimistic scenario 53.75 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank of Ayudhya PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 48.84 THB, about +24% upside versus a price of 39.25 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 45.96 THB, optimistic scenario 53.75 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Bank of Ayudhya PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 121B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Bank of Ayudhya PCL pay a dividend?
Bank of Ayudhya PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank of Ayudhya PCL would have to grow free cash flow by -19.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAY use?
Our models discount Bank of Ayudhya PCL at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank of Ayudhya PCL that is -19.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank of Ayudhya PCL grew +7.0 % a year. The price currently implies -19.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank of Ayudhya PCL (-19.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.24 %: that much free cash flow Bank of Ayudhya PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank of Ayudhya PCL it is 48.84 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 39.25 THB. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank of Ayudhya PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BAY trades below its calculated fair value: price 39.25 THB, fair value 48.84 THB, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (39.25 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (48.84 THB). For Bank of Ayudhya PCL the two are 9.59 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank of Ayudhya PCL worth?
The market values Bank of Ayudhya PCL at about 333B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 39.25 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 48.84 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAY?
Our models span a range for Bank of Ayudhya PCL: cautious scenario 45.96 THB, base 48.84 THB, optimistic 53.75 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 39.25 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAY?
Bank of Ayudhya PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 48.84 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.8, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of BAY?
The PEG ratio of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 1.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank of Ayudhya PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAY from its 52-week high?
Bank of Ayudhya PCL trades at 39.25 THB, about 16% below its 52-week high of 46.75 THB and 75% above the low of 22.45 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 48.84 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank of Ayudhya PCL?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank of Ayudhya PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 39.25 THB, calculated fair value 48.84 THB (+24%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAY calculated?
We run Bank of Ayudhya PCL through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 48.84 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank of Ayudhya PCL currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 39.25 THB. Our model-based fair value is 48.84 THB, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank of Ayudhya PCL right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (45.96 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ayudhya PCL grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank of Ayudhya PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The market capitalisation of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 333B THB (≈ $10.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 1.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ayudhya PCL are 4.46 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The dividend yield of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 3.3% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The net margin of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
The operating margin of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 38.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Revenue at Bank of Ayudhya PCL is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY)?
Earnings per share at Bank of Ayudhya PCL are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank of Ayudhya PCL (BAY) carry?
The net debt of Bank of Ayudhya PCL is 114B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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