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Bayer AG (BAYER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bayer AG HUF 17,359, price HUF 16,605, upside +4.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · HU

BA Bayer AG logo Some data Sep 29, 2026

Bayer AG

BAYER · BUD

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value 17,359 HUF · Fairly valued (+4.5%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

25,183 HUF 7,730 HUF Fair Value 17,359 HUF Sep 2019 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7,730 HUF – 25,183 HUF · fair‑value band 9,030 HUF – 27,831 HUF · the 16,605 HUF price screens below the 17,359 HUF fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Bayer operates as a life science company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Germany, Switzerland, North America, the United States, the Asia Pacific, China, Latin America, and Brazil. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments.

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Bayer operates as a life science company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Germany, Switzerland, North America, the United States, the Asia Pacific, China, Latin America, and Brazil. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments. The Pharmaceuticals segment provides prescription products primarily for cardiology and women's health care; specialty therapeutics in the areas of oncology, hematology, and ophthalmology; and diagnostic imaging equipment and contrast agents, as well as cell and gene therapy. The Consumer Health segment offers nonprescription over-the-counter medicines for self-medication and self-care; nutritional supplements; allergy, cough, and cold; dermatology; pain and cardiovascular risk prevention; and digestive health products. The Crop Science segment offers chemical and biological crop protection products, improved plant traits, seeds, digital solutions, and pest and weed management products, as well as customer services for agriculture. It also engages in the breeding, propagation, and production/processing of seeds, including seed dressing. The company distributes its products through wholesalers, pharmacies and pharmacy chains, supermarkets, online and other retailers, and hospitals, as well as directly to farmers. Bayer was founded in 1863 and is based in Leverkusen, Germany.

Stock analysis

Bayer AG (BAYER) currently trades at 16,605 HUF, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17,359 HUF, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.3%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 30,072 HUF per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the 16,605 HUF price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6,514 HUF, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 9,030 HUF (bear) to 27,831 HUF (bull), the price of 16,605 HUF sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Bayer AG reported revenue of €45.6B in FY2025 versus €44.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.6B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 16.3T HUF (≈ $49.9B) · EPS (TTM) −772.34 HUF · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 26.3% · Revenue (TTM) €45.2B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 5%, BAYER screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 9,030 HUF Fair Value 17,359 HUF Bull 27,831 HUF
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 10,926 HUF 18,763 HUF 33,278 HUF 77
Growth DCF 11,855 HUF 19,462 HUF 32,473 HUF 76
EPV 10,684 HUF 13,970 HUF 16,845 HUF 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 10,926 HUF 18,763 HUF 33,278 HUF 77
5Y Revenue Exit 10,453 HUF 19,612 HUF 32,926 HUF 70
5Y EBITDA Exit 17,125 HUF 31,163 HUF 49,758 HUF 73
10Y Revenue Exit 9,932 HUF 16,780 HUF 24,141 HUF 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 14,532 HUF 23,923 HUF 34,022 HUF 68
Earnings-Based
EPV 10,684 HUF 13,970 HUF 16,845 HUF 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 20,296 HUF 30,072 HUF 39,848 HUF 65
EV/EBITDA 26,077 HUF 37,781 HUF 49,484 HUF 67
EV/Revenue 11,899 HUF 20,871 HUF 29,842 HUF 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 4,861 HUF 6,514 HUF 9,722 HUF 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 11,855 HUF 19,462 HUF 32,473 HUF 76
Rev-Margin DCF 10,453 HUF 20,080 HUF 31,864 HUF 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 10,684 HUF 14,503 HUF 18,722 HUF 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.7% (2020) → 13.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.2% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−0.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.5%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside +17.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 3.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −4.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 26.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.19× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.92× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 14.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 4.68× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)56 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)41 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,157 $749.08 −35%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $264.74 $168.85 −36%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $261.59 $259.62 −1%
Roche Holding RO CHF 375.20 CHF 326.56 −13%
Merck & Co MRK $143.81 $129.26 −10%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 118.06 CHF 121.90 +3%
Amgen Inc AMGN $421.51 $463.66 +10%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $149.05 $198.77 +33%
Pfizer Inc PFE $28.12 $24.87 −12%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $62.40 $75.96 +22%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayer AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAYER

Frequently asked questions

Is Bayer AG (BAYER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17,359 HUF versus a price of 16,605 HUF, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BAYER?
Our model-based fair value for Bayer AG is 17,359 HUF (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16,605 HUF.
What is the quality score of BAYER?
Bayer AG has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17,359 HUF (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 9,030 HUF, optimistic scenario 27,831 HUF. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayer AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17,359 HUF, about +5% upside versus a price of 16,605 HUF (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 9,030 HUF, optimistic scenario 27,831 HUF. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Bayer AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Bayer AG pay a dividend?
Bayer AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bayer AG (BAYER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bayer AG would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAYER use?
Our models discount Bayer AG at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Hungary. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bayer AG that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bayer AG (BAYER) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bayer AG grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bayer AG (BAYER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bayer AG (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.92 %: that much free cash flow Bayer AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayer AG it is 17,359 HUF per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 16,605 HUF. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayer AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BAYER trades below its calculated fair value: price 16,605 HUF, fair value 17,359 HUF, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAYER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16,605 HUF); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17,359 HUF). For Bayer AG the two are 753.77 HUF per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayer AG worth?
The market values Bayer AG at about 16.3T HUF (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 16,605 HUF; our models calculate a fair value of 17,359 HUF per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAYER?
Our models span a range for Bayer AG: cautious scenario 9,030 HUF, base 17,359 HUF, optimistic 27,831 HUF per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 16,605 HUF). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BAYER?
The PEG ratio of Bayer AG is 4.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayer AG (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAYER from its 52-week high?
Bayer AG trades at 16,605 HUF, about 11% below its 52-week high of 18,725 HUF and 64% above the low of 10,100 HUF (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17,359 HUF is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayer AG?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayer AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 16,605 HUF, calculated fair value 17,359 HUF (+5%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAYER calculated?
We run Bayer AG through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17,359 HUF, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayer AG currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 16,605 HUF. Our model-based fair value is 17,359 HUF, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayer AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide (9,030 HUF to 27,831 HUF). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Bayer AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The market capitalisation of Bayer AG is 16.3T HUF (≈ $49.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Earnings per share at Bayer AG are −772.34 HUF. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The dividend yield of Bayer AG is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The net margin of Bayer AG is −7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayer AG is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayer AG is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayer AG (BAYER)?
The operating margin of Bayer AG is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Revenue at Bayer AG is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayer AG (BAYER)?
Earnings per share at Bayer AG are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bayer AG (BAYER) carry?
The net debt of Bayer AG is €28.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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