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Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Banco Santander, S.A BRL 42.82, price BRL 69.93, upside -38.8%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN ES0113900J37

BS Some data Sep 28, 2026

Banco Santander, S.A

BCSA34 · SA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value R$42.82 · Strongly overvalued (−38.8%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!0.3% dividend yield · Token dividend
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$77.11 R$10.86 Fair Value R$42.82 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$10.86 – R$77.11 · fair‑value band R$37.92 – R$52.99 · the R$69.93 price screens above the R$42.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Banco Santander, S.A. provides various financial products and services to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporations, and public entities worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Retail & Commercial Banking, Digital Consumer Bank, Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance, and Payments.

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Banco Santander, S.A. provides various financial products and services to individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporations, and public entities worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Retail & Commercial Banking, Digital Consumer Bank, Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance, and Payments. It offers demand and time deposits, mutual funds, and current and savings accounts; mortgages, consumer finance, loans, and various financing solutions; and project finance, debt capital markets, global transaction banking, and corporate finance services. The company also provides credit and debit cards, real estate loans, microfinance, and auto loans; corporate and investment banking services; advice on mergers and acquisitions; wealth, asset, and risk management services; and digital payments and technology solutions. In addition, it is involved in the securitization, leasing, management of portfolios, e-commerce, air transport, aircraft rental, software, consulting, fund and investment management, renewable energy, vehicle rental, insurance, advertising, marketing, telemarketing, automotive, agricultural, factoring, securities brokerage and investment, pension fund management, trade intermediary, venture capital fund, renting, restaurant, electricity production, IT, internet, and financial advisory and other activities; management, and other real estate activities; and purchase and sale of vehicles. Further, the company offers mobile and online banking services. Banco Santander, S.A. was formerly known as Banco Santander Central Hispano SA and changed its name to Banco Santander, S.A. in February 2007. The company was incorporated in 1856 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Stock analysis

Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34) currently trades at R$69.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$42.82, 38.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$59.22 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$69.93 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$18.61, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$37.92 (bear) to R$52.99 (bull), the price of R$69.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Banco Santander, S.A reported revenue of €60.5B in FY2025 versus €48.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was €14.1B in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$1.0T (≈ $197B) · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 3.12 · EPS (TTM) R$5.22 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 23.3% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −39%, BCSA34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$37.92 Fair Value R$42.82 Bull R$52.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.77 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$41.01 R$49.47 R$66.94 76
Gordon GGM R$12.58 R$21.53 R$32.39 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$12.58 R$18.61 R$25.27 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$12.58 R$21.53 R$32.39 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$12.58 R$18.61 R$25.27 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$56.37 R$75.16 R$93.95 63
P/B Multiple R$44.41 R$59.22 R$74.02 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$21.15 R$28.34 R$42.30 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$41.01 R$49.47 R$66.94 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%

BCSA34 screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.9% · Above median
Return on assets 0.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 34.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 43.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.14× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.22× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.89× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $330.83 $188.11 −43%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.28 ¥10.93 +32%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.98 ¥13.69 +25%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $55.47 $42.37 −24%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.97 ¥12.94 +86%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.62 ¥9.86 +49%
Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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Banco Santander, S.A · Fair Value
R$42.82 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banco Santander, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCSA34

Frequently asked questions

Is Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$42.82 versus a price of R$69.93, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCSA34?
Our model-based fair value for Banco Santander, S.A is R$42.82 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$69.93.
What is the quality score of BCSA34?
Banco Santander, S.A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$42.82 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$37.92, optimistic scenario R$52.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco Santander, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$42.82, about −39% upside versus a price of R$69.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$37.92, optimistic scenario R$52.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Banco Santander, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €47.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Banco Santander, S.A pay a dividend?
Banco Santander, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Santander, S.A it is R$42.82 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$69.93. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco Santander, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, BCSA34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$69.93, fair value R$42.82, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCSA34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$69.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$42.82). For Banco Santander, S.A the two are R$27.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco Santander, S.A worth?
The market values Banco Santander, S.A at about R$1.0T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$69.93; our models calculate a fair value of R$42.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCSA34?
Our models span a range for Banco Santander, S.A: cautious scenario R$37.92, base R$42.82, optimistic R$52.99 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$69.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BCSA34?
Banco Santander, S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$42.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BCSA34?
The PEG ratio of Banco Santander, S.A is 3.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco Santander, S.A (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 3.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCSA34 from its 52-week high?
Banco Santander, S.A trades at R$69.93, about 9% below its 52-week high of R$77.11 and 38% above the low of R$50.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$42.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco Santander, S.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco Santander, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$69.93, calculated fair value R$42.82 (−39%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCSA34 calculated?
We run Banco Santander, S.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$42.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Santander, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$69.93. Our model-based fair value is R$42.82, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco Santander, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$52.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Banco Santander, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The market capitalisation of Banco Santander, S.A is R$1.0T (≈ $197B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Santander, S.A is 3.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Earnings per share at Banco Santander, S.A are R$5.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The dividend yield of Banco Santander, S.A is 0.3% (payout 4.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The net margin of Banco Santander, S.A is 23.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Santander, S.A is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Banco Santander, S.A is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
The operating margin of Banco Santander, S.A is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Revenue at Banco Santander, S.A is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34)?
Earnings per share at Banco Santander, S.A are growing +67.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34) generate?
The free cash flow of Banco Santander, S.A is −€22.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banco Santander, S.A (BCSA34) carry?
The net debt of Banco Santander, S.A is €52.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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