Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc (BDTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $95.7M
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc
BDTX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +2.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 147% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.25 – $27.85 · fair‑value band $3.74 – $6.10 · the $1.95 price screens below the $4.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc (BDTX) currently trades at $1.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.81, implying the stock looks roughly 146.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
It earns a return on equity of -35.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.74 (bear case) to $6.10 (bull case); at $1.95, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at 147%, BDTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($7.20) versus Asset-Based ($1.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of MasterKey therapies for patients with genetically defined tumors.
Full company description
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of MasterKey therapies for patients with genetically defined tumors. The company's lead product candidate is silevertinib, a brain-penetrant epidermal growth factor receptor MasterKey inhibitor, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of epidermal growth factor receptor mutant non-small cell lung cancer, as well as Phase 2 clinical trial to treat glioblastoma. It is also developing BDTX-4933, a brain-penetrant RAF MasterKey inhibitor targeting KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF alterations in solid tumors that is in Phase 1 clinical trial. In addition, the company is developing BDTX-4876, a MasterKey inhibitor of oncogenic FGFR2/3 mutations with selectivity versus FGFR1/4, which is in preclinical stage. The company was formerly known as ASET Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. in January 2018. Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $70.0M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $22.4M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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