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Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc $5.23, price $1.90, upside +175.3%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US09203E1055

BD Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc

BDTX · US

Strongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.

✓Fair value $5.23 · Strongly undervalued (+175%)
✓Quality 75/100
!Weak Growth
✓Highly profitable · 32.0% net margin (FY2025)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/9)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$12.86 $1.25 Fair Value $5.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.25 – $12.86 · fair‑value band $4.00 – $6.38 · the $1.90 price screens below the $5.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of MasterKey therapies for patients with genetically defined tumors.

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Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of MasterKey therapies for patients with genetically defined tumors. The company's lead product candidate is silevertinib, a brain-penetrant epidermal growth factor receptor MasterKey inhibitor, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of epidermal growth factor receptor mutant non-small cell lung cancer, as well as Phase 2 clinical trial to treat glioblastoma. It is also developing BDTX-4933, a brain-penetrant RAF MasterKey inhibitor targeting KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF alterations in solid tumors that is in Phase 1 clinical trial. In addition, the company is developing BDTX-4876, a MasterKey inhibitor of oncogenic FGFR2/3 mutations with selectivity versus FGFR1/4, which is in preclinical stage. The company was formerly known as ASET Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. in January 2018. Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) currently trades at $1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.23, implying the stock looks roughly 63.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.18 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $1.90 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.31, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $4.00 (bear) to $6.38 (bull), the price of $1.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $70.0M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $22.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $109M · EPS (TTM) $−0.7500 · Net margin 32.0% · Return on equity −37.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −43.1% · Free cash flow $29.6M · Net cash $2.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 175%, BDTX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.00 Fair Value $5.23 Bull $6.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $2.59 $2.86 $3.07 70
FCF DCF $5.00 $6.55 $8.40 69
Growth DCF $5.03 $6.40 $7.96 67
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.00 $6.55 $8.40 69
5Y Revenue Exit $3.76 $5.04 $6.57 61
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.22 $5.87 $7.70 63
5Y P/E Exit $5.54 $8.27 $11.03 59
10Y Revenue Exit $4.22 $5.38 $6.77 57
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.52 $5.86 $7.48 58
10Y P/E Exit $5.24 $7.27 $9.59 54
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.65 $7.04 $9.21 51
Lynch FV $1.36 $1.95 $2.53 48
PEG = 1.0 $1.36 $1.95 $2.53 45
EPV $2.59 $2.86 $3.07 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.42 $8.56 $10.71 63
P/S Multiple $3.20 $4.26 $5.33 58
P/B Multiple $4.96 $6.62 $8.27 55
EV/EBIT $4.77 $6.24 $7.71 63
EV/EBITDA $4.06 $5.29 $6.52 64
EV/Revenue $2.92 $4.02 $5.12 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9800 $1.31 $1.95 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $5.03 $6.40 $7.96 67
Rev-Margin DCF $3.76 $5.12 $6.65 61
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.00 $2.65 $6.96 52
ROIC Compounder $2.66 $3.04 $3.44 61
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.03 $7.18 $9.33 59

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 650 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +175% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −19% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.97× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BDTX

Frequently asked questions

Is Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.23 versus a price of $1.90, about +175% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BDTX?
Our model-based fair value for Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is $5.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.90.
What is the quality score of BDTX?
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.00, optimistic scenario $6.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.23, about +175% upside versus a price of $1.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.00, optimistic scenario $6.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BDTX use?
Our models discount Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 3.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.17 %: that much free cash flow Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc it is $5.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.90. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BDTX trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.90, fair value $5.23, a gap of about +175% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BDTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.23). For Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc the two are $3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc at about $109M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.90; our models calculate a fair value of $5.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BDTX?
Our models span a range for Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $4.00, base $5.23, optimistic $6.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −37.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BDTX from its 52-week high?
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc trades at $1.90, about 61% below its 52-week high of $4.87 and 18% above the low of $1.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.90, calculated fair value $5.23 (+175%), Quality Score 75/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BDTX calculated?
We run Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc currently trades 175 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.90. Our model-based fair value is $5.23, about +175% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
The market capitalisation of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is $109M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
Earnings per share at Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc are $−0.7500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
The net margin of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is 32.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is −37.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc is −43.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net cash does Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) hold?
Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $2.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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