Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Biglari Holdings Inc $64.69, price $347, upside -81.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $112.04 – $476.92 · fair‑value band $54.19 – $87.02 · the $346.96 price screens above the $64.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Biglari Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily operates and franchises restaurants in the United States. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin names.
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Biglari Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily operates and franchises restaurants in the United States. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin names. It also engages in underwriting commercial truck insurance, including selling physical damage and non-trucking liability insurance to truckers; and property and casualty insurance and reinsurance. In addition, the company operates oil and natural gas properties offshore in Louisiana state waters and in the Permian Basin; and publishes, licenses, and sells magazines under the MAXIM brand names. Further, it involved investment activities. The company was formerly known as The Steak n Shake Company and changed its name to Biglari Holdings Inc. in April 2010. Biglari Holdings Inc. was founded in 1934 and is based in San Antonio, Texas.
Stock analysis
Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) currently trades at $346.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.69, implying the stock looks roughly 436.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $260.51 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $346.96 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $65.44, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $54.19 (bear) to $87.02 (bull), the price of $346.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Biglari Holdings Inc reported revenue of $395M in FY2025 versus $366M in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/S ratio 2.98 · EPS (TTM) $−22.06 · Net margin −9.5% · Return on equity −5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 7.7% · Revenue (TTM) $406M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −81%, BH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $54.19Fair Value $64.69Bull $87.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.5% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.2% (2019) → 6.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.31× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.98× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF15.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.69 versus a price of $346.96, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BH?
Our model-based fair value for Biglari Holdings Inc is $64.69 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $346.96.
What is the quality score of BH?
Biglari Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.69 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.19, optimistic scenario $87.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Biglari Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.69, about −81% upside versus a price of $346.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $54.19, optimistic scenario $87.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Biglari Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $406M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Biglari Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BH use?
Our models discount Biglari Holdings Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Biglari Holdings Inc that is +2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Biglari Holdings Inc grew -1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Biglari Holdings Inc (+2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.12 %: that much free cash flow Biglari Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Biglari Holdings Inc it is $64.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $346.96. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Biglari Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BH trades above its calculated fair value: price $346.96, fair value $64.69, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($346.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.69). For Biglari Holdings Inc the two are $282.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Biglari Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Biglari Holdings Inc at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $346.96; our models calculate a fair value of $64.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BH?
Our models span a range for Biglari Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $54.19, base $64.69, optimistic $87.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $346.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Biglari Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.3%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BH from its 52-week high?
Biglari Holdings Inc trades at $346.96, about 27% below its 52-week high of $476.92 and 40% above the low of $247.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Biglari Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Biglari Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $346.96, calculated fair value $64.69 (−81%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BH calculated?
We run Biglari Holdings Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Biglari Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $346.96. Our model-based fair value is $64.69, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Biglari Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($87.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Biglari Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The market capitalisation of Biglari Holdings Inc is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Biglari Holdings Inc is 2.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Earnings per share at Biglari Holdings Inc are $−22.06. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The net margin of Biglari Holdings Inc is −9.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Biglari Holdings Inc is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Biglari Holdings Inc is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
The operating margin of Biglari Holdings Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Revenue at Biglari Holdings Inc is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Biglari Holdings Inc (BH)?
Earnings per share at Biglari Holdings Inc are growing −18.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Biglari Holdings Inc (BH) carry?
The net debt of Biglari Holdings Inc is $89.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026